The UK to remain within a reformed EU? | 43 comments (43 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (4.00 / 9)

Do we, as Europeans, really want these people back?
Joris Luyendijk on BBC World Service Business Daily

Things as they stand are inherently unstable. Stability will arguably be gained by a hard (but orderly) Brexit followed by an association agreement. Maybe they should have left after Maastricht and we wouldn't have this mess.

Reform package on the way out? Corbyn fighting for Remain? The British government has really overstretched the patience of the EU. We've got our own [misplaced] pride. It could be a blackmail too many. We need to have this out and the Brexiteers, after decades of appeasement, need to get their cold shower.

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Wed Jul 25th, 2018 at 10:15:21 PM EST

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (4.00 / 4)

As I understand, once Art. 50 is invoked there is NO way back.

Unchartered waters and all 27 nations would have to agree. A single vote against would veto the proposal.

Is just not going to happen!

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Jul 25th, 2018 at 10:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (4.00 / 3)

The EU Council President, Donald Tusk, has indicated the Council would be happy to accept a UK change of mind, and allow the A50 notification to be withdrawn. A50, itself, makes no explicit provision for this, and so we are in uncharted territory. My reading is that there is no legal right no withdraw, but the Council can make a political decision to accept a withdrawal. As you say I think this would require unanimity, as it is similar to an indefinite extension of A50, which also requires unanimity.

However for this whole scenario to be plausible, a Brexit deal of some sort would have to be agreed in October, voted down by the Commons in November, followed by an election and change of government in December. Renewed negotiations in January/February followed by a second referendum in March with a confirmed result in before 29th, March in time for the A50 notification to be withdrawn.

And as you say, it would take only one country to with=hold consent. A lot of ifs and buts. Very much an outlier scenario.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 25th, 2018 at 11:26:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (none / 0)

I agree. As a practical matter the apparatus of the EU government will decide in situ what dispensation, if any, to proffer members' that recant secession. That is how the EU rule-making becomes insitutional.

The UK is out numbered.

Veto prerogative of any one EU member state in no way rescinds or negates the UK's A50 action. It (dis)approves terms of settlement. It does not terminate secession.

The EC and EP have proffered the UK several options to mitigate its inevitable "third-country" status.

Tory gov has declined them all, even the future "association" compromise that Verhofstadt plants on the table once a month to lure Tory gov into any commitment to rational, negotiated process.

Make no mistake: Tory gov did NOT "conclude" any agreement to UK/IE border control in Dec '17 or March '18.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 12:37:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"Tory gov did NOT " 'conclude' " (none / 0)

For this reason --as well as British military calumny, fancifully recalled as "The Troubles"-- IE is hiring and training customs guards. Try to look surprised when this Taoiseach or the next "reveals" EU subsidy for IE to maintain the EU border.

archived
If you were Barnier-Varadkar-May combined, which gov will be 'patroling' the invisible customs border?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 01:20:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Customs recruitment (none / 0)

Varadker has announced the recruitment of 1,000 customs officials - but they will be stationed at ports and airports, not the Boarder. 10,000 British troops couldn't secure that border.

AFAIK the EU allows the operating state something like a 10% retention of tariffs collected to cover administrative expenses. I'm not sure how this works if the checks are primarily for regulatory compliance rather than Tariff collection. I have to date been unable to confirm this impression.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 08:39:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Delicious irony (none / 0)

I think you have this the wrong way around. A Brexit deal concluded before 29th. March can be approved by weighted majority vote - In practice, so long as all the major players are on Board. An A50 extension on the other hand, requires unanimity. My take is that an A50 withdrawal - in practice an indefinite extension - would also require unanimity, although there is no express provision, precedent, or authoritative legal opinion on this point that I am aware of.

The same applies to any FTA or other association deal agreed after 29th. March, as the UK will then, effectively, be a third party. If any such deal involves an exercise of powers not already delegated by Treaty to the EU, it will also require a referendum in Ireland. It would be a delicious irony if the UK's future status vis a vis the EU became dependent on the vote of the plain people of Ireland in a referendum vote... I can see a lot of banter between relatives and friends in Ireland and the UK on the theme of "what will you give me in return for my voting in favour of your EU deal?"

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 08:20:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Delicious irony (4.00 / 3)

Especially since I suspect that you are going out of your way to be polite. I spoke to a Dubliner a few weeks ago, and he said that lots of people are looking forward to Brexit as an opportunity for revenge...

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 08:42:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Delicious irony (4.00 / 2)

When it comes to sticking it to the Eton/Oxbridge crowd, the gloves are off, and war has been declared. Most Brexiteers have a gift for pissing everyone else off with their conceit and arrogance and casual put-downs of "the Irish" or the EU. Many Irish have experienced racism or at least condescension at the hands of such people usually identified by their posh accents.

However most Irish also have a lot of friends and relatives in the UK who could be badly effected. Many are also aware that a hard Brexit will lead to many job loses in Ireland. Some businesses have already had to close because their margins were tighter than Sterling devaluation allowed. Much of the indigenous agri-foods sector is still very dependent on the UK market.

Not to mention N. Ireland where Brexit will be seen as a victory for the DUP and a blow to cross-community reconciliation. Things will get ugly if the economic consequences are as severe as I expect them to be.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 09:09:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (4.00 / 2)

Barnier Reply: Dismisses Chequers White Paper

We are working on the basis of what was agreed in March with Theresa May.

19 March Draft Highlights
19 March Draft UPDATE 5 July 2018
Britain and EU formally start splitting WTO membership agreements 25 July 2018

That action cannot be walked back.

The show is over.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 12:55:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (none / 1)

Everyone is feeling Brexit fatigue, but I couldn't see the Council going against a very clear referendum result to remain. That too, would be the clearest and most emphatic rejection of the Brexiteers.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 25th, 2018 at 11:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (4.00 / 4)

That seems to be just about the only possibility. Remain by unilateral A50 withdrawal is of course legally quite possible. But the needle hasn't moved much politically. People either don't care or are as Brexity and ignorant as ever.

On this side of the Channel too. Mind you, while the political/mental shift has happened on the EU27 side and the UK is already seen as a third country (that cannot be trusted because it keeps going back on its word), the EU27 people are still somewhat in denial about the consequences. A negative shock is not really an advertisement for Remain but rather more fuel for recriminations. Or a propellant for a suboptimal deal because it's still better than no deal. Then it would only be a question of time before people in turn started complaining about that deal.

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 04:40:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The UK to remain within a reformed EU? (none / 1)

"Remain by unilateral A50 withdrawal is of course legally quite possible."

I don't think so as there is no provision for this in A.50. So there is no legal right to unilaterally withdraw, but the Council, as a political body, can make a political decision to accept a withdrawal. But it is not legally obliged to accept such a withdrawal, and it may require unanimity for it to do so.

I agree that popular opinions haven't (yet) shifted enough to make a different referendum result inevitable, although small majorities for remain are evident in the polls. In my scenario above I am banking on the continuing negotiating debacle that is the Tory government to sufficiently disillusion leavers, combined with the only alternative being a potentially disastrous "no deal" Brexit.

On the EU27 side I don't see there being a lot of scope for ongoing recriminations about the Brexit deal because it won't effect most members all that much - Ireland and perhaps Holland/Belgium being the exceptions. The Canada or other FTA's tend not to be the subject of ongoing popular recriminations afterwards.

Obviously if citizens are effected directly, e.g. by having to have a visa to travel to or work in the UK, there will be complaints. It's hard to see how they would blame the EU for that however, as controlling migration is explicitly what Brexit was mostly about. A hard border in Ireland would however poison domestic politics indefinitely...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 08:58:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The UK to remain within a reformed EU? | 43 comments (43 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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