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As I understand, once Art. 50 is invoked there is NO way back.

Unchartered waters and all 27 nations would have to agree. A single vote against would veto the proposal.

Is just not going to happen!

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Wed Jul 25th, 2018 at 10:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU Council President, Donald Tusk, has indicated the Council would be happy to accept a UK change of mind, and allow the A50 notification to be withdrawn. A50, itself, makes no explicit provision for this, and so we are in uncharted territory. My reading is that there is no legal right no withdraw, but the Council can make a political decision to accept a withdrawal.  As you say I think this would require unanimity, as it is similar to an indefinite extension of A50, which also requires unanimity.

However for this whole scenario to be plausible, a Brexit deal of some sort would have to be agreed in October, voted down by the Commons in November, followed by an election and change of government in December.  Renewed negotiations in January/February followed by a second referendum in March with a confirmed result in before 29th, March in time for the A50 notification to be withdrawn.

And as you say, it would take only one country to with=hold consent. A lot of ifs and buts. Very much an outlier scenario.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 25th, 2018 at 11:26:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree. As a practical matter the apparatus of the EU government will decide in situ what dispensation, if any, to proffer members' that recant secession. That is how the EU rule-making becomes insitutional.

The UK is out numbered.

Veto prerogative of any one EU member state in no way rescinds or negates the UK's A50 action. It (dis)approves terms of settlement. It does not terminate secession.

The EC and EP have proffered the UK several options to mitigate its inevitable "third-country" status.

Tory gov has declined them all, even the future "association" compromise that Verhofstadt plants on the table once a month to lure Tory gov into any commitment to rational, negotiated process.

Make no mistake: Tory gov did NOT "conclude" any agreement to UK/IE border control in Dec '17 or March '18.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 12:37:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For this reason --as well as British military calumny, fancifully recalled as "The Troubles"-- IE is hiring and training customs guards. Try to look surprised when this Taoiseach or the next "reveals" EU subsidy for IE to maintain the EU border.

archived
If you were Barnier-Varadkar-May combined, which gov will be 'patroling' the invisible customs border?


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 01:20:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Varadker has announced the recruitment of 1,000 customs officials - but they will be stationed at ports and airports, not the Boarder. 10,000 British troops couldn't secure that border.

AFAIK the EU allows the operating state something like a 10% retention of tariffs collected to cover administrative expenses. I'm not sure how this works if the checks are primarily for regulatory compliance rather than Tariff collection. I have to date been unable to confirm this impression.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 08:39:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you have this the wrong way around. A Brexit deal concluded before 29th. March can be approved by weighted majority vote - In practice, so long as all the major players are on Board. An A50 extension on the other hand, requires unanimity. My take is that an A50 withdrawal - in practice an indefinite extension - would also require unanimity, although there is no express provision, precedent, or authoritative legal opinion on this point that I am aware of.

The same applies to any FTA or other association deal agreed after 29th. March, as the UK will then, effectively, be a third party. If any such deal involves an exercise of powers not already delegated by Treaty to the EU, it will also require a referendum in Ireland. It would be a delicious irony if the UK's future status vis a vis the EU became dependent on the vote of the plain people of Ireland in a referendum vote... I can see a lot of banter between relatives and friends in Ireland and the UK on the theme of "what will you give me in return for my voting in favour of your EU deal?"

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 08:20:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Especially since I suspect that you are going out of your way to be polite. I spoke to a Dubliner a few weeks ago, and he said that lots of people are looking forward to Brexit as an opportunity for revenge...
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 08:42:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When it comes to sticking it to the Eton/Oxbridge crowd, the gloves are off, and war has been declared. Most Brexiteers have a gift for pissing everyone else off with their conceit and arrogance and casual put-downs of "the Irish" or the EU. Many Irish have experienced racism or at least condescension at the hands of such people usually identified by their posh accents.

However most Irish also have a lot of friends and relatives in the UK who could be badly effected. Many are also aware that a hard Brexit will lead to many job loses in Ireland. Some businesses have already had to close because their margins were tighter than Sterling devaluation allowed. Much of the indigenous agri-foods sector is still very dependent on the UK market.

Not to mention N. Ireland where Brexit will be seen as a victory for the DUP and a blow to cross-community reconciliation. Things will get ugly if the economic consequences are as severe as I expect them to be.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 09:09:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Barnier Reply: Dismisses Chequers White Paper
We are working on the basis of what was agreed in March with Theresa May.
19 March Draft Highlights
19 March Draft UPDATE 5 July 2018
Britain and EU formally start splitting WTO membership agreements 25 July 2018

That action cannot be walked back.

The show is over.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 12:55:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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