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Everyone is feeling Brexit fatigue, but I couldn't see the Council going against a very clear referendum result to remain. That too, would be the clearest and most emphatic rejection of the Brexiteers.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 25th, 2018 at 11:29:53 PM EST
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That seems to be just about the only possibility. Remain by unilateral A50 withdrawal is of course legally quite possible. But the needle hasn't moved much politically. People either don't care or are as Brexity and ignorant as ever.

On this side of the Channel too. Mind you, while the political/mental shift has happened on the EU27 side and the UK is already seen as a third country (that cannot be trusted because it keeps going back on its word), the EU27 people are still somewhat in denial about the consequences. A negative shock is not really an advertisement for Remain but rather more fuel for recriminations. Or a propellant for a suboptimal deal because it's still better than no deal. Then it would only be a question of time before people in turn started complaining about that deal.

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 04:40:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Remain by unilateral A50 withdrawal is of course legally quite possible."

I don't think so as there is no provision for this in A.50. So there is no legal right to unilaterally withdraw, but the Council, as a political body, can make a political decision to accept a withdrawal. But it is not legally obliged to accept such a withdrawal, and it may require unanimity for it to do so.

I agree that popular opinions haven't (yet) shifted enough to make a different referendum result inevitable, although small majorities for remain are evident in the polls. In my scenario above I am banking on the continuing negotiating debacle that is the Tory government to sufficiently disillusion leavers, combined with the only alternative being a potentially disastrous "no deal" Brexit.

On the EU27 side I don't see there being a lot of scope for ongoing recriminations about the Brexit deal because it won't effect most members all that much - Ireland and perhaps Holland/Belgium being the exceptions. The Canada or other FTA's tend not to be the subject of ongoing popular recriminations afterwards.

Obviously if citizens are effected directly, e.g. by having to have a visa to travel to or work in the UK, there will be complaints. It's hard to see how they would blame the EU for that however, as controlling migration is explicitly what Brexit was mostly about. A hard border in Ireland would however poison domestic politics indefinitely...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 26th, 2018 at 08:58:44 AM EST
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