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How Turkey's Crisis Might Fracture NATO | naked capitalism

And, much like the 1997 crisis, the recent collapse of the Turkish lira has exacerbated Turkey's problems. The decline in the domestic currency (precipitated by President Trump's decision to double tariffs on Turkish metal exports last week), along with the U.S. Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate hikes, have substantially elevated the cost of foreign debt servicing. Economist Brad Setser sets out Turkey's problems starkly, noting that the country has "a one-year external financing need of close to 30 percent of Turkey's pre-depreciation GDP, against 12 percent in total reserves and about 10 percent of GDP in foreign exchange reserves. And the bulk of Turkey's maturing external debt is denominated in a foreign currency--it thus is a claim on reserves that cannot be depreciated away."

How Turkey's Crisis Might Fracture NATO | naked capitalism

President Erdoğan badly needs to keep the Turkish "miracle" afloat, but he's unlikely get the help he needs from the usual suspects, such as the IMF (which would likely force painful deflationary measures on the country as it did during the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98). He could well secure it from Russia, however, which would undoubtedly love to exploit any divisions in Turkey's ties to the West. By the same token, Russia's President Putin would tremendously increase his own domestic stature were he to pull off a pipeline/gas export deal with Turkey that a) brings in much-needed foreign exchange income for Russia and b) is a public slap in the face to the obvious U.S./Big Oil attempt to strangle Russian gas exports to Europe.


Turkey - Wikipedia
GDP (PPP)    2018 estimate $2.320 trillion

International Reserves of the Russian Federation (End of period) | Банк России
31/07/2018     458,032(millions of US dollars)

So if I'm reading that right then Turkey's external funding need for one year net reserves is about the size of Russia's entire foreign holdings?
Don't think that will work out. Kids, don't dollarize your Economy.

by generic on Sun Aug 19th, 2018 at 10:37:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember this? Let's do.
2015: Alexis "Huey" Tsipras flies to Moscow amid speculation of bailout from Putin ...
"Russia offers to loan Greece funds for infrastructure and transport ..."
"Putin: Greece did not seek financial aid from Russia - BBC News"
&tc.

Meanwhile, ECB drove eurozone sovereign bond price "signals" into a proverbial pit along, thus domesticating international speculators' expectations of moar g and appetite for moar g. Much confusion calculating alpha --the significance of "risk free"-- and beta valuations ensued.

"Politics all the way down"
In retrospect --approximately five minutes, or thirty-three years-- collusion among allied govs to impoverish enemies (or adversaries) with generous offers of funding assistance had never occurred either um "deliberately or by design."

The more the currencies of dollar-indebted countries slide, the more real goods and services they have to pay in tribute to the US to service the same paper-dollar debts - whilst those who cannot keep up will be gobbled up for pennies on the dollar. Yet beyond these purely economic gains lies also the geopolitical imperative - to maintain and extend US domination by scuppering its rivals. Trump is, after all, about nothing if not the conversion of all possible means of power into leverage to obliterate his opponents
except for those occasions when every proper central bank "suspended" settlement of legal tender with precious metals, rewarded patriots with profiteering opportunities and their emissaries with Nobel Peace prizes.

Kids, don't dollarize your Economy.
I admit, I have watched with great interest in ROW successfully surviving withdrawal symptoms.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Aug 20th, 2018 at 04:07:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Russian interference in Greece ...  dream on Vladimir!

The Southern pipeline through Greece and the Balkans has been successfully blocked by the US.
The US put in it's leading ambassador Pyatt to frustrate Russia and its influence in a crucial EU state for the US and NATO.

Germany's Merkel is trying her best to keep Erdogan close to her chest ... perhaps with a financial injection that will cost the EU tens of billions. Too soon to call ... mixed signals.

The new Caspian Sea basin agreement is perhaps the greatest disappointment for Trump and his minions on Wall Street, the Hill and in the fossil fuel states of the red neck nation.

Putin drops South Stream gas pipeline to EU, courts Turkey | Reuters - Dec. 1, 2014 |
Southern Gas Corridor
Israel, Cyprus, and Greece push East Med gas pipeline to Europe | Times of Israel - May 2018 |

Trump will use economic warfare to deflate the states which won since the 2003 invasion of Iraq: Iran - Turkey -  Russia.

PS rare metals can be found in China and Afghanistan

Greeks, austerity, jobs and pride ...

The Eurozone Crisis, Greece, and the Experience of Austerity (2013)

by Oui on Mon Aug 20th, 2018 at 05:36:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lacking empathy with the Greek people ... chest beating coming from Brussels:

Fighting for the German banks ...

Who will repay the €289bn debt?

Greece awaits debt relief measures after nearly a decade of austerity

by Oui on Mon Aug 20th, 2018 at 05:48:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The probability that no one cares if Greece repays debt to eurosystem is about 98.723 certain, according to my private calculation. ahem. Retiring the debt is not the objective.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Aug 20th, 2018 at 07:14:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who will repay the €289bn debt?

Nobody.Will.Ever.Pay.The.Greek.Debt.

When a company goes bankrupt, everyone walks away (and the management start again). When a country goes bankrupt, we play "Extend and Pretend" (which is the modern equivalent of debtors' prison : You stay there until you pay...)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Aug 21st, 2018 at 09:05:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So if you have reserves of 10% and the whole economy has funding needs of 30% do you have a problem? I guess it depends on how much of the economy already belongs to your friends.
by generic on Thu Aug 23rd, 2018 at 10:24:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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