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And, much like the 1997 crisis, the recent collapse of the Turkish lira has exacerbated Turkey's problems. The decline in the domestic currency (precipitated by President Trump's decision to double tariffs on Turkish metal exports last week), along with the U.S. Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate hikes, have substantially elevated the cost of foreign debt servicing. Economist Brad Setser sets out Turkey's problems starkly, noting that the country has "a one-year external financing need of close to 30 percent of Turkey's pre-depreciation GDP, against 12 percent in total reserves and about 10 percent of GDP in foreign exchange reserves. And the bulk of Turkey's maturing external debt is denominated in a foreign currency--it thus is a claim on reserves that cannot be depreciated away."
How Turkey's Crisis Might Fracture NATO | naked capitalism
President Erdoğan badly needs to keep the Turkish "miracle" afloat, but he's unlikely get the help he needs from the usual suspects, such as the IMF (which would likely force painful deflationary measures on the country as it did during the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98). He could well secure it from Russia, however, which would undoubtedly love to exploit any divisions in Turkey's ties to the West. By the same token, Russia's President Putin would tremendously increase his own domestic stature were he to pull off a pipeline/gas export deal with Turkey that a) brings in much-needed foreign exchange income for Russia and b) is a public slap in the face to the obvious U.S./Big Oil attempt to strangle Russian gas exports to Europe.
GDP (PPP) 2018 estimate $2.320 trillion
31/07/2018 458,032(millions of US dollars)
So if I'm reading that right then Turkey's external funding need for one year net reserves is about the size of Russia's entire foreign holdings?
Don't think that will work out. Kids, don't dollarize your Economy.
Meanwhile, ECB drove eurozone sovereign bond price "signals" into a proverbial pit along, thus domesticating international speculators' expectations of moar g and appetite for moar g. Much confusion calculating alpha --the significance of "risk free"-- and beta valuations ensued.
"Politics all the way down"
In retrospect --approximately five minutes, or thirty-three years-- collusion among allied govs to impoverish enemies (or adversaries) with generous offers of funding assistance had never occurred either um "deliberately or by design."
The more the currencies of dollar-indebted countries slide, the more real goods and services they have to pay in tribute to the US to service the same paper-dollar debts - whilst those who cannot keep up will be gobbled up for pennies on the dollar. Yet beyond these purely economic gains lies also the geopolitical imperative - to maintain and extend US domination by scuppering its rivals. Trump is, after all, about nothing if not the conversion of all possible means of power into leverage to obliterate his opponents
Kids, don't dollarize your Economy.
I admit, I have watched with great interest in ROW successfully surviving withdrawal symptoms.
Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
The Southern pipeline through Greece and the Balkans has been successfully blocked by the US.
The US put in it's leading ambassador Pyatt to frustrate Russia and its influence in a crucial EU state for the US and NATO.
Germany's Merkel is trying her best to keep Erdogan close to her chest ... perhaps with a financial injection that will cost the EU tens of billions. Too soon to call ... mixed signals.
The new Caspian Sea basin agreement is perhaps the greatest disappointment for Trump and his minions on Wall Street, the Hill and in the fossil fuel states of the red neck nation.
○ Putin drops South Stream gas pipeline to EU, courts Turkey | Reuters - Dec. 1, 2014 |
○ Southern Gas Corridor
○ Israel, Cyprus, and Greece push East Med gas pipeline to Europe | Times of Israel - May 2018 |
Trump will use economic warfare to deflate the states which won since the 2003 invasion of Iraq: Iran - Turkey - Russia.
PS rare metals can be found in China and Afghanistan
Greeks, austerity, jobs and pride ...
○ The Eurozone Crisis, Greece, and the Experience of Austerity (2013)
You did it! Congratulations to Greece and its people on ending the programme of financial assistance. With huge efforts and European solidarity you seized the day.— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) August 20, 2018
You did it! Congratulations to Greece and its people on ending the programme of financial assistance. With huge efforts and European solidarity you seized the day.
Fighting for the German banks ...
I have always fought for #Greece to remain at the heart of #Europe. With the conclusion of the stability support programme the Greek people begin a new chapter in their storied history. They will always find in me an ally, a partner and a friend. (_link)— Jean-Claude Juncker (@JunckerEU) August 20, 2018
I have always fought for #Greece to remain at the heart of #Europe. With the conclusion of the stability support programme the Greek people begin a new chapter in their storied history. They will always find in me an ally, a partner and a friend. (_link)
Who will repay the 289bn debt?
○ Greece awaits debt relief measures after nearly a decade of austerity
Who will repay the 289bn debt?
When a company goes bankrupt, everyone walks away (and the management start again). When a country goes bankrupt, we play "Extend and Pretend" (which is the modern equivalent of debtors' prison : You stay there until you pay...)
It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II
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