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to The International Bond Market, Informed by Bloomberg Reporting

U.K. to End Zero Risk for EU Government Bonds on No Deal Brexit < wipes tears >

The change would automatically require U.K. banks, and subsidiaries holding parts of their liquidity in government bonds, to commit additional capital against the securities, according to the Treasury.

wut
A deal that results in both sides recognizing their regimes as equivalent [?!] would avoid that scenario.
same currency, same 27 nation-states, same rates, same liabilities and income. m'k.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Aug 23rd, 2018 at 05:20:13 PM EST
Clever way of punishing the EU :

"It's a bizarre decision," said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based analyst at Investec Plc, adding that some market-making would become "prohibitively expensive to do out of London."



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 09:54:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is not as bizarre as it seems at first blush.

International bank capital standards assign zero risk to own government bonds in its own currency. This makes eminent sense since the central bank will never let its government default on its own-currency debt.

Except, of course in the eurozone where there is no federal debt and the ECB and national central banks are barred from directly financing their governments.

As it turns out, the prohibition of monetary financing applies to all EU member states, but I would be shocked if the EU tried to tell a non-eurozone central bank it cannot buy its own government's bonds.

Now, the EU capial requirements regulation incorporates this idea by giving EU member state government debt zero risk weights in bank capital.

Arguably this makes the CRR lenient because it assigns zero risk weights to eurozone government bonds that the eurozone policy establishment has already proved it's willingness to force into default (see Greece's "private sector involvement" in 2012).

In addition, the CRR assigns zero risk weight to third-country government bonds when that country has an equivalent bank regulatory regime to the EU.

So, if the UK crashes out of the EU and the EU does not grant the UK regulatory equivalence, then UK government bonds held by EU-supervised banks may automatically acquire a risk weight (unless the UK retains an AAA credit rating).

The UK, acting reciprocally, would then assign risk weights to EU27 member state government bonds.

Now, what is perhaps bizarre is the implication in all these press stories that the UK would turn this into a bargaining chip in order to extract regulatory equivalence as an EU27 concession. This is because in the absence of equivalence it would become prohibitively expensive to hold EU government bonds in UK portfolios. The natural response would be to move those portfolios intra-group to an EU27-based subsidiary. The only damage would be tó the City of London which would lose market share in the bond market.

But, as Boris Johnson said, "fuck business", and presumably fuck the City as well.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 06:27:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's an atrocious article from Bloomberg, and the accompanying video is just cringeworthy. Reuters does a better job of explaining what the issue is:
Banks in the EU don't have to hold capital against holdings of their own government's bonds, a rule known as zero risk weight, as such domestic debt is considered "risk free".

The government said in its SI published on Tuesday that if Britain leaves the bloc with no transition deal next March, the EU would automatically become a "third country".

This means that the zero risk weight rule would no longer apply to EU banks in Britain.

"Therefore, this SI will remove preferential treatment for EU27 exposures," the document said.

As far as I can tell this applies only to UK subsidiaries of EU27 banks holding bonds of their parent's home country in their UK portfolio.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 04:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then again, the Capital Requirements Regulation does treat bonds issued by all member states equally:
Art. 144.4. Exposures to Member States' central governments, and central banks denominated and funded in the domestic currency of that central government and central bank shall be assigned a risk weight of 0 %.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 04:35:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Teh Market does not.

KACHING!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 05:22:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But we're talking about the regulatory capital charges on banks, not the market value of bond portfolios.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 06:12:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some of us watch what they do, not what they say.

< wipes tears >

"What this means, I believe, is that a country with its own currency would not be subject to the kind of self-fulfilling panic that is now arguably hitting Italy."

Never. Gets. Old.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 06:25:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Italy does not have its own currency.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 06:30:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The United Kingdom does.
< wipes tears >

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 08:17:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
same currency, same 27 nation-states, same rates, same liabilities and income. m'k.
What do you mean? This doesn't apply to the EU27, not even for the eurozone, let alone to the EU and the UK together.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 24th, 2018 at 06:11:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(a FT column title and a classic joke about incongruent measures of risk-free government debts)

The reporter stated: "A deal that results in both sides recognizing their regimes as equivalent would avoid that scenario."

You and I agree (somewhat) that this statement is preposterous.

I snidely disagreed with it -- on its face, in principle and in practice: The supposition "same currency, same 27 nation-states ["regimes"], same rates, same liabilities and income" is patently false.

You agreed with with my response before you disagreed with my response: "That's an atrocious article from Bloomberg"; "This is not as bizarre as it seems at first blush." An elaborate discursion into capital classes, capital stipulations, capital requirements, and regulatory enforcement* prerogatives presumed to balance an equation of comparable risk-free debentures ensues.

The fact remains: Neither government bureaucracies nor central bank governors operate non-profit enterprises, sadly, desperately. P > R-C

-----
* without the bother of σ: primary and secondary price "signal" variance, rating agencies' "signal" variance, taxation authority and income variance, FX reserve S/D variance, and one of my personal favorites, "eligible" collateral (surety) variance.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Aug 31st, 2018 at 04:05:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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