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What I cannot figure out is how any Brexit method would get through Parliament. Even if the EU leadership were to agree with May's proposal, and every EU country to agree with everything she proposes, how on Earth would she get it approved on the UK side?
by asdf on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 01:59:35 AM EST
with the DUP she has a majority. The Lords can reject it once, but not twice if it is sent back to them

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 09:04:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So in this hypothetical scenario, ERG members would vote for Chequers having described it as turning the UK into a vassal state??

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 10:26:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it won't be Chequers, it'll be a much slimmer Norway or even Canada+. Anything that is bettr than no deal. Because there remains a substantial portion of the opposition who would vote for anything in preference to a "No Deal".

Both the SNP & Lib Dems would carry it through. And I suspect there would be a few Labour votes too.

But the capacity for the ERG to throw spanners in the works to ensure no deal should not be under-estimated

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 01:10:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not Chequers, that was a poor sickly child at birth and died soon after. But some fudge, call it Ghost of Chequers Attempts to Return 3, that a significant number of Tories will refuse to vote for despite being brutally whipped (those public-school lads like a good whipping anyway).

All the more that May is not the Thatcher she has tried to mimic, that she will never unite Tory MPs behind her, and that the hard-Brexit leaders dream of nothing better than her downfall and replacement (by ME, says Boris).

So getting the ghostly fudge through Parliament would seem to call for help from Labour MPs. Corbyn would doubtless like to see the UK out of the EU before he takes over. Iirc around 200 Labour MPs followed his lead (three-line whip) in voting with May on triggering Article 50. How much have things changed since?

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 01:38:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jeremy Corbyn has said he will back giving the British people a final say on Brexit in a new referendum if party members vote for it at Labour's conference this week.

...

Mr Corbyn also said he would join forces with rebel Tories to vote down Theresa May's Brexit plans in parliament if they did not meet Labour's tests, with The Independent reporting on Saturday that the party would then maximise pressure on the prime minister by seeking a motion of no confidence in the government if her proposals fell.

Labour will launch a plan to force an election by seeking a motion of no confidence in the government within days if Theresa May's Brexit deal is defeated in parliament, The Independent has learnt.

Jeremy Corbyn and his top team will launch an attempt to force the Conservative administration to go to the people at what they believe will be a moment of maximum weakness for the prime minister.

Multiple sources confirmed party chiefs have game-planned their approach if Ms May's beleaguered proposals are vetoed in a crucial commons vote or if she fails to get a deal in Europe, which looks increasingly likely after EU leaders torpedoed them earlier this week.

Seems clearer, but there's still some wiggle room.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 07:04:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn is slowly but surely getting his act together on Brexit. According to a You Gov poll, 86% of Labour supporters now want a second referendum on any Brexit deal actually negotiated.

As one Labour trade Unionist put it some time ago: You have one poll to decide on whether to take industrial action, and then another on whether your members accept whatever deal you have negotiated on their behalf.

The precise form of any referendum question still has to be decided, however, and depends on whether May actually negotiates a deal. Will it be Remain vs. May's deal, or May's deal vs. No deal? (A three choice -vote 1,2,3 in order of your choice - with votes for the most unpopular option recounted on the basis of their second choice) seems much too complicated for a British people used to a FPTP system.

If there is no deal, it becomes a simple Remain vs. no deal Brexit choice. If the House of Commons votes down May's deal, arguably that option is defunct too, so the choice is Remain vs. No deal Brexit.  The choice which must be avoided is No deal vs. May's deal, as it would disenfranchise everyone who voted Remain before.

That is probably why May, and any deal she might negotiate has to go. Corbyn is right to look for a general election to remove her, but would also be right to promise a second referendum as part of his manifesto for the election.

The EU needs to be clear it is not going to negotiate a new deal with Corbyn having failed to have any deal they negotiated with May rejected by the House of Commons or the British people. What they offer Corbyn must be no different to what they offered May so the choice in any referendum will be Remain or a no deal Brexit.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 08:59:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not realistic ... putting options before Labour Congress.

A 2nd referendum is acceptable to no one and time has run out. The Tory government may fall, that won't solve the Brexit deal ... London in panic mode. Finally!

Great presentation Frank! They should have listened.

Indeed Kabuki theater from the onset ... wrote that in a diary too.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 11:23:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well there seems to have been a sea change in Labour supporters attitudes, with 86% now wanting a referendum on any deal negotiated. In a democracy, people are allowed to change their minds. If Labour puts a pledge to that effect in their manifesto, they might well win the next election, if there is one any time soon. The issue is will May negotiate a deal this autumn, and will it be passed by the Commons. If not all bets are off.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2018 at 11:47:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My comment from July 15th ....

Kabuki theatre

I can't help it, but these last weeks of Downing Street 10 appears to me part of a Kabuki theatre of the Tories with May, Johnson and Davies in the lead roles.

There is no way Michel Barnier and the EU nations will accept the Chequers White Paper as a new start for negotiations. Intent to let the "negotiations" fail and place blame on EU intransigence.

Once the talks have failed, the real Brexiteers will become part of government again, perhaps under a new Tory leader.

That's my take of things that pass. It couldn't be utter stupidity, can it?

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 03:56:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU is intensifying its preparations for a no-deal Brexit amid heightened fears in European capitals that Jeremy Corbyn will order his MPs to vote down any deal struck in Brussels, a leaked document reveals.

Labour's stated goal to reject Theresa May's deal in order to spark a general election has provoked a rush of activity in Brussels, where the party's plans are regarded as one of the substantial risks to the negotiations.

Shortly after Corbyn ends his leader's speech at the Labour party conference, one of the European commission's most senior officials is to address EU ambassadors on contingency planning in the event of a breakdown in talks, or the likely failure of the UK parliament to ratify any agreement struck in Brussels.

Emphasis mine

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed Sep 26th, 2018 at 12:27:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know to what extend you have been following our discussions here, but my mainstream 80% probabiity scenario has always been that while May's government may or may not negotiate a deal, it will not be a very substantial deal, not covering future trading relationships, for instance, and that the chances of the House of Commons passing it will be quite small.

Hard line Brexiteers will reject it because of the compromises it will inevitably contain, include not a lot of substance for the £40 Billion up front payment. The DUP will reject it because the possibility of "regularity divergence" does not rule out to possibility of controls "in the Irish sea", and Remainers will reject it because it is so obviously far inferior to full membership or the sort of promises the Leavers made during the referendum campaign.

It's hard to be sure because there are a few Leavers in the Labour party who owe no loyalty to Corbyn and who are crazy enough to think that Brexiteers care for their constituents.

If anything has changed in my perception in the past few weeks it is that the May government has exceeded even my wildest expectations in its own incompetence, with the result that the probability of both a no deal Brexit and of Remain has increased perceptively.

The Labour Party's slumbering advance towards supporting a second referendum has increased both its electability, and the chance of Tory Remainers bring down the Government. Some achievements all round.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 26th, 2018 at 03:05:53 PM EST
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