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The one real remaining imponderable in my scenarios for the future is what May will do when/if "her" Brexit deal is rejected by the House of Commons.

Will she resign the leadership and make way for Johnson-Mogg - who will then sail merrily towards a WTO rules Brexit - not realising that Trump has more or less destroyed the WTO and that the future could be trade wars?

Or will she "go to the country" and campaign for acceptance of her deal as the only way to avoid the "chaos" of a no deal Brexit or a Corbyn Premiership?

It depends on whether her primary loyalty is to her party or to the country.  If her primary loyalty is to herself, I suggest there is more dignity in going to the country and losing than simply resigning the leadership as an abject failure at the one main task you set yourself.

Given Corbyn would approve any decision to go to the country is their any constitutional impediment to her doing so - say if there is a prior challenge to her leadership in the 1922 committee? Is there any way Brexiteers can stop her?

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 09:54:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, she won't resign but, and this is unlikely, the ERG might force her to go.

Right now there is a lot of smoke and fury around the Tory party. We will know far more about what it signifies after conference next week.

May's Strasburg conference was supposed to give her a bounce to see off her oppoents, just like her previous General election gamble. She is a serial stumbler, which is not a good look for a party of Government. But the Tories are still in compromise mode to maintain party unity. The brexit fanatics know they can bring May down anytime, but at the cost of destroying the Tory party. The Remainers and pro-business leavers know hope they can cobble an alliance across the Commons to prevent a "No Deal".

But a General election would be an end to all of their hopes. So, that's the least likely option unless a binding vote on the brexit deal is brought to the Commons. But even then, right wing anti-Corbyn Labour MPs will probably support the govt.

who knows? Really, it's all unknowable. People are plotting and planning in every corner, all hoping to advance their agenda and place themselves in positions of influence. the only thing they're ignoring is the well being of the country at large, which is stagnating and disintegrating due to the absnce of direction and leadership.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 10:25:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Strasbourg Salzberg

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 10:27:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jonny Foreigner being nasty to our PM may actually help her with some of the Tory faithful. Corbyn re-positioning himself in more centrist mode, supporting a referendum, will make it more difficult for most Labour right-wingers to rebel. I think the party system could reassert itself with minimal rebels on either side, meaning it could be all down to the DUP. I don't see how May could survive a Commons rejection of her deal without either resigning or going to the country, but who knows? This shambles gets more pathetic all the time.

If I were her I would call the DUP's bluff. If she follows through on the Backstop agreement with Ireland, the DUP have only one choice: suck it up or cause an election which might bring Corbyn to power. They will also be facing the Northern Ireland electorate having put Irish re-unification back on the agenda, ignored the N. Ireland vote to remain, not delivered on the £1 Billion in extra spending they promised, not restored the assembly or executive, in the middle of the Renewable Heat Scandal inquiry, and with Ian Paisley narrowly missing recall for taking over 50k in Sri Lankan bribes/holidays. If they end up with less votes than Sinn Fein their days could be numbered. Do they want to take that risk?

Looked at from the EU side I sense they scent blood and are preparing ever more seriously for a no deal Brexit. All have decided that no deal is better than undermining CUSM. If they play hardball enough, they may even get a new government/referendum with some possibility of UK remaining in a somewhat chastened state. There is almost zero incentive for them to seriously compromise at this stage. They're winning, so why give a sucker an even break?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 11:35:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A Parliamentary defeat on such an essential plank of government policy should normally, logically, in conformity to conventional rules (but how comical those words sound these days), result in the government's immediate resignation or in a motion of no confidence bringing about same.

May might hope to survive as party leader going into the ensuing election, because she's delusional. My tenner would be on Boris Mogg.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 01:08:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris Mogg and the EU would be an ideal match. Neither want the other and would be delighted to be shut of each other. No need for complex deals or to worry about N.I. (Where?) An absolutely fabulous and utterly harmonious parting to the ways - until reality intervenes. But that need not be for some time yet. In the meantime Mogg's Dublin based investment funds clean up. Jolly good!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 05:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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