Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Jonny Foreigner being nasty to our PM may actually help her with some of the Tory faithful. Corbyn re-positioning himself in more centrist mode, supporting a referendum, will make it more difficult for most Labour right-wingers to rebel. I think the party system could reassert itself with minimal rebels on either side, meaning it could be all down to the DUP. I don't see how May could survive a Commons rejection of her deal without either resigning or going to the country, but who knows? This shambles gets more pathetic all the time.

If I were her I would call the DUP's bluff. If she follows through on the Backstop agreement with Ireland, the DUP have only one choice: suck it up or cause an election which might bring Corbyn to power. They will also be facing the Northern Ireland electorate having put Irish re-unification back on the agenda, ignored the N. Ireland vote to remain, not delivered on the £1 Billion in extra spending they promised, not restored the assembly or executive, in the middle of the Renewable Heat Scandal inquiry, and with Ian Paisley narrowly missing recall for taking over 50k in Sri Lankan bribes/holidays. If they end up with less votes than Sinn Fein their days could be numbered. Do they want to take that risk?

Looked at from the EU side I sense they scent blood and are preparing ever more seriously for a no deal Brexit. All have decided that no deal is better than undermining CUSM. If they play hardball enough, they may even get a new government/referendum with some possibility of UK remaining in a somewhat chastened state. There is almost zero incentive for them to seriously compromise at this stage. They're winning, so why give a sucker an even break?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 24th, 2018 at 11:35:24 AM EST
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