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I don't know how it was reported elsewhere but the BBC might as well have been reporting a state funeral. They were all but playing solemn music as they reported on how comprehensively May's proposals were rejected. The gap over Ulster is just too great, everything else can be finessed but Ireland requires a hard solution. She did look kinda shell-shocked actually. After months of tough negotiations with Jacob Rees-Mogg to create a set of proposals that avoid destroying the Tory party, she seemed genuinely surprised that she wasn't being applauded to the rafters in Salzburg for her clever proposals. It's almost as if it never occured to her that the EU had a viewpoint that needed to be considered. It's not long until the Tory party conference and, given this debacle, I'd be shocked if there weren't stand up fights in the auditorium, resignations and a, metaphorical or otherwise, stabbing or two backstage. And there's already talk of a General Election being called.
The gap over Ulster is just too great, everything else can be finessed but Ireland requires a hard solution.
She did look kinda shell-shocked actually. After months of tough negotiations with Jacob Rees-Mogg to create a set of proposals that avoid destroying the Tory party, she seemed genuinely surprised that she wasn't being applauded to the rafters in Salzburg for her clever proposals. It's almost as if it never occured to her that the EU had a viewpoint that needed to be considered.
It's not long until the Tory party conference and, given this debacle, I'd be shocked if there weren't stand up fights in the auditorium, resignations and a, metaphorical or otherwise, stabbing or two backstage.
And there's already talk of a General Election being called.
The EU has never really understood that brexit was all about holding the Tory party together. So the EU never had a counter-party to negotiate with.
The finnicky details of leaving were never something leavers were concerned with. They were self-styled brexiteers, blue-sky big-picture people. Details were for little people and they were affronted to find that people expected them to actually get off their butts and drive negotiations forward. That was the point when the wheels came off cos they didn't have a plan, heck they didn't even have a clue. They didn't know what the EU did and didn't know how they did it. So, it's no surprise they didn't know how to organise leaving.
May tried to make Davis, Johnston and Fox, the three loudest most pomous windbags the focal point of the leave campaign. But, that was never gonna fly;- Davis is a fool who, even in a Westminster populated by the vain and stupid is notable for being vain and stupid,
Liam Fox is a man who understands Ministerial Responsibility to involve going to sunny parts of the world, often with his special "friend" and adviser, and having expensive meals with foreigners. the idea that work might be involved baffles him.
As for Boris Johnston; this is a man who, if he was outside the tent, would piss in, but when he is inside the tent he only improves his aim. He wants to be Prime Minister; not because he has idea of how to run the country, but in the Trumpian wants-to-tell-everybody-what-to do tin-pot-dictator kind of way. Everything he does is designed to advance his cause and frustrae those who stand in his way. So he was never interested in brexit cos a succesful one would burnish May, not himself. A No-Deal brexit has always been the catastrophe he sought.
After they spent 18 MONTHS faffing about, we are where we are, which is that the UK is no nearer knowing how to leave the EU than it was before Article 50 was invoked. There is still no concensus of opinion, even within the brexiters, let alone the Tory party at large, about what a good brexit would look like.
Yes, you'd think these things are basic that any normal group of people would do before entering into one of the most complext legal and political negotiations in the country's history. But they're not normal, they're tories. For the last 40 years their entire credo of "governance" has been about the abdication of responsibility for anything.
We have had a summer of chaos on the railways from organisational meltdown for which a Board of inquiry has decided that the problem is that there was nobody in charge. Yet the Minister for Transport is going around TV studios saying that none of this has anything to do with him.
We have a Minister for Ulster who not only doesn't understand the difference between Unionists and Nationalists, she boasts about it on national radio. Because why should a mere Minister in CHARGE know anything about the situation they're managing.
Seriously, even Dilbert's pointy-headed manager is better than this lot.
So May's idiot plan based on customs rainbows and border unicorns and please please can we carry on trading with Europe like before but without all the bits we don't like has run into adult reality and been smashed to bits.
Quite frankly we are in unknown territory. As they said at the start of the TV puppet show "Stingray";-
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR!!!!
keep to the Fen Causeway
You have a plan, you tell other people to make it happen chop chop, you go off on your holidays. When you return, there's your plan - or something like it - and you take all the money and credit and don't even say thank you.
If something goes wrong you shout at people and strut around looking and feeling important until someone else decides to fix the problem.
You are master of your universe, the unquestioned alpha monarch in your domain, and it's all perfectly splendid. You get your way, no one else matters, and that's the natural order of things.
Until you meet someone who has more power, money, and pragmatic intelligence than you do.
It's important to understand this is not exaggeration. I've met people like this, and in a few instances narrowly avoided working for them. Their inability to understand how the world really works is quite breathtaking.
Shit, I worked for people like that for years until I got so tired of banging my head against the wall that I took a large pay cut to get the hell out, and they were all middle-class people who went to generic state universities. But yeah, swap them for a bunch of Yale/Harvard/Duke/whatever dipshits, and you get all the awfulness but insulated with the cultural reverence for "elite" education. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
I think EU leaders understood this well enough, and were willing to give her as much latitude as possible in order to avoid a mutually damaging no deal Brexit. I think Salzburg finally disabused them of the delusion that she would be able to deliver on a deal and that they had better start working on plan B: Prepare for a no deal Brexit and hope that someone who could deliver on a deal takes her place.
I actually think that someone like BoJo could actually have the audacity to agree a deal absolutely unthinkable now and sell it to the Brexiteers as a win. He needs to find a way to topple her and buy off the DUP with some shameless bribery or chicanery without precipitating a general election.
The almost universal rejection of Chequers is her epitaph - like Camberlain's Munich "peace in our time" agreement with Hitler. Now she just has to go, if she has the wit to recognize it. Index of Frank's Diaries
The almost universal rejection of Chequers is her epitaph - like Camberlain's Munich "peace in our time" agreement with Hitler.
This comparison seems unfair to Chamberlain. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Well, he's survived for a respectable number of years. Which is unlikely to happen to them. I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
from the Guardian's Jonathan Lis
Don't buy the Brexit hype: it's a border in the Irish Sea or the customs union
which begins
Donald Tusk's clear rejection of Theresa May's Chequers plan at the Salzburg summit yesterday should not come as a surprise. The most important lesson of the Brexit negotiation is that it is not a negotiation, and never has been. Blessed with superior size, wealth and power, the EU has been able to dictate the framework and substance of the talks, and has refused any deviation from its red lines.
and finishes:
The [UK] government has never understood the Brexit process and therefore has always botched it. It expects the EU to treat the UK both as an equally powerful third country, and as a member state still deserving the EU's protection. It is neither. And so in a battle of red lines, the UK will lose. That is the most brutal lesson of all.
and again The Guardian - Rafael Behr
The EU couldn't help May at Salzburg because she's seeking the impossible
Ultimately the EU cannot give May what she really needs, which is a Brexit model that will simultaneously satisfy the whole Tory party and win support from a majority in the Commons, without inflicting harm on the country. They cannot give her that because it doesn't exist, never did, never will.
At politics.co.uk, Ian Dunt applies his usual critical analysis:
Brexit: Brussels just got serious
But today's events suggest something has changed. You could see by May's expressions, which were even more strained than normal, that she had been taken by surprise. Things had fallen apart. In reality, nothing has changed - Chequers was never going to happen this morning and tonight it remains something that is never going to happen - but it is extremely significant that Brussels has changed its attitude. Perhaps they grew tired of Britain presenting Chequers as a take-it-or-leave-it proposition. After all, May's shock suggests she might have really believed it would fly. We must pray that is not the case because it would suggest that she is so detached from reality that she cannot functionally perform the role of prime minister. [Emphasis added by me]
In reality, nothing has changed - Chequers was never going to happen this morning and tonight it remains something that is never going to happen - but it is extremely significant that Brussels has changed its attitude.
Perhaps they grew tired of Britain presenting Chequers as a take-it-or-leave-it proposition. After all, May's shock suggests she might have really believed it would fly. We must pray that is not the case because it would suggest that she is so detached from reality that she cannot functionally perform the role of prime minister. [Emphasis added by me]
From the pieces I quote, you will realise I believe that for 27 months there is an inevitablity about the position we have reached.
The Commission cannot do anything to undermine the Single Market and Customs Union because they were set up by Treaties signed by 28 sovereign governments. Even a relatively minor change would require unanimous agreement by those 28 governments, and in some countries, like Ireland, that would in turn require a referendum to approve the Treaty change.
There simply isn't time to organise that level of change, and even if there were, would the UK really wish to be held hostage to a referendum in Ireland and some other countries?
So what the UK calls the Commission's "inflexibility" is really the Commission sticking to the actual mandate it has been given by 27 governments within the framework of existing laws and Treaties. These cannot be simply wished away.
So not only is this a contest between unequal economic powers, it is conflict between two different kinds of powers: one without a written constitution and a great deal of power vested in its Prime Minister, cabinet, and civil service, and the other which needs to conform to previously enacted laws and maintain a consensus between 27 member governments and various other institutions and interests if it is to be able to operate at all.
EU leaders were willing to give Theresa May as much PR cover as they could, recognising her difficult domestic political situation, all on the basis that she would ultimately conceded a deal they could live with in due course.
But then she had a breakfast meeting with a young, brash, leader of a small state and former colony who saw no reason to allow her to renege on previous commitments and put his country's peace, stability and prosperity at risk just because she had done a dirty deal with a small, corrupt, sectarian party in N. Ireland.
That is not going to change. Index of Frank's Diaries
She has correctly identified that the EU27 is only offering two options : Norway or the highway.
And she's perfectly clear that neither is acceptable to her.
Then it gets worse...
May says she wants to clarify several issues. She says she wants to be clear that the rights of EU citizens will be protected in the event of no deal. She says to the people of Northern Ireland that they will do everything to prevent a hard border with the Irish republic.
She says to the people of Northern Ireland that they will do everything to prevent a hard border with the Irish republic.
... but it won't be possible, is the subtext. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
As I told EU leaders, neither side should demand the unacceptable of the other. We cannot accept anything that threatens the integrity of our union, just as they cannot accept anything that threatens the integrity of theirs. We cannot accept anything that does not respect the result of the referendum, just as they cannot accept anything that is not in the interest of their citizens.
A moving moment. She finally acknowledges the hopelessness of her self-assigned task.
Oddly, she finished the presser without resigning. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
Absolutely nobody has ever explained what it was that the British public voted for. What they do is describe their own personal brexit and then claim that this is what was voted for. To describe it as dishonest is merely remarking that water is wet (news to Donald I know) or that bears shit in woods.
There are many versions of brexit that do not threaten the integrity of the referendum result, the integrity of the UK nor that of the EU. However, to do so buggers up Theresa's personal brexit which involves leaving the European Court of Justice which she personally hates and despises.
And that's the problem. Everybody is wandering around talking about brexit as if it was an entirely accepted idea of what it entailed. There isn't. keep to the Fen Causeway
Indeed, I wish somebody had compiled a compendium of soft-soap promises from the brexiteers of what brexit would look like leading up to the referendum, cos they drove a cart and horses through that lot the day after keep to the Fen Causeway
Scots judges refer the question of whether the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 to the ECJ.
Scots judges. To the ECJ.
Carloway, one of three judges to consider the case on appeal after it was initially rejected in June as "academic and hypothetical", noted that the Commons would be required to vote on whether to ratify any Brexit deal before 29 March 2019, "a date which is looming up", and that a judgment from the ECJ would "have the effect of clarifying the options open to MPs in the lead-up to what is now an inevitable vote".
If it turns out that the UK Parliament can, by a vote, solemnly and meekly put an end to the whole train wreck... It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
John Crace - He who invented the concept of 'The Maybot' with her inadequate operating system and the 'Four Pot Plants' passing judgement on the negotiations - brings his usual pithy putdowns to bear.
Nothing had changed, it was all the EU's fault and she wanted respect. Has she any for herself? Was this the moment Theresa May finally lost all touch with reality? The day the Maybot's circuits overloaded and reverted to their factory settings. The day when history was rewritten in such a way as to make it virtually unrecognisable. <Snip> May, who has turned exercises in futility into an artform during her time in office, excelled herself this time. Nothing had changed from yesterday, when nothing had changed from the day before. Except this time she wanted to appear determined and steely instead of sweaty and terrified. She had looked into the abyss of her own career and decided that if she was going down then she would do her best to take her party and the country with her. The Salzburg summit hadn't gone very well, she began. Nothing like a statement of the obvious to get things rolling. ....
Was this the moment Theresa May finally lost all touch with reality? The day the Maybot's circuits overloaded and reverted to their factory settings. The day when history was rewritten in such a way as to make it virtually unrecognisable. <Snip> May, who has turned exercises in futility into an artform during her time in office, excelled herself this time. Nothing had changed from yesterday, when nothing had changed from the day before. Except this time she wanted to appear determined and steely instead of sweaty and terrified. She had looked into the abyss of her own career and decided that if she was going down then she would do her best to take her party and the country with her.
The Salzburg summit hadn't gone very well, she began. Nothing like a statement of the obvious to get things rolling. ....
If that style appeals, then do read on.
Why Theresa May's plan to bypass Barnier was doomed. The idea made no sense but fed into the British tabloid narrative about Brussels.
There are probably many reasons for the contrived fiction about bypassing Barnier. For a start it is difficult for anyone to accept that their arguments are simply not gaining traction. It also feeds comfortably into the British tabloid narrative about Brussels bureaucracy. The fiction seeks to shift the focus from the British red lines, which define the limits of a solution but are apparently sacrosanct, towards the EU's stance in defence of its basic principles, which it suits some to portray as inflexible. Moreover, the nonsense about Brussels bureaucrats helps the British government to argue domestically that a solution would be at hand if only the right people would engage. It helps to keep alive the illusion that the German and French business cavalry are about to appear on the horizon, riding to the UK's rescue, although it is clear that the cavalry are sitting comfortably back at base camp.
Moreover, the nonsense about Brussels bureaucrats helps the British government to argue domestically that a solution would be at hand if only the right people would engage. It helps to keep alive the illusion that the German and French business cavalry are about to appear on the horizon, riding to the UK's rescue, although it is clear that the cavalry are sitting comfortably back at base camp.
So it was just me and the UK Elites are still living along various banks of Denial. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
That aside, and in spite of all the bullshit, there's no serious interest in pushing the UK out of the EU, and even less interest in a no-deal crash out.
Both will have inconvenient practical and economic consequences.
The EU is much better placed to deal with those consequences than the UK is. Even so - a crash-out, which is currently the most likely option, turns the UK into an unstable partially-failed rogue state right on the EU's borders. There are any number of reasons why that is not an appealing prospect.
So it's not denial, particularly. The EU is prepared to be pragmatic. It would prefer the UK to stay, but if the UK leaves it will make preparations and take mitigating action - more or less in that order.
How have you arrived at this conclusion?
A50 binding in "accordance with its [the member's] own constitutional requirements".
UK Parliament enacted a bill authorizing the gov to withdraw, March 2017, after the UK High Court dismissed Miller's challenge to the referendum.
Has anyone appealed that "constitutional" judgment to um a higher authority? Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
The "constitutional" question about EU jurisdiction is very narrow: whether ECJ scope of "supervisory jurisdiction" (advisory function, "Declarator") reaches Scotland's Court of Sessions judgment of disputed separation of powers in UK gov. The SCS settled that constitutional question for MSPs. The question
whether a notice given by a member state in terms of Article 50 may competently be revoked unilaterally before the expiry of the two year period.
We know, after 31 March 2019, UK might as well simply re-apply for membership. This right is not controversial but in no way simplifies UK procedural chaos.
ECJ accepted the review opportunity in order to affirm, zero interest in creating procedural law for UK revoking A50 notice (observing EU own separation of powers) and limited interests in adjudicating members' nonconforming laws with EU directives. ECJ will affirm UK sovereignty and SCS authority to remand MSPs, I predict. Doing so explicitly establishes EU legal precedent for the issues.
MSPs should have invoked some Art.7 issues and EU case law to stimulate the desired remedy. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
At this point there's no possible argument that the result is constitutionally valid in any legal sense.
The only thing keeping the charade moving forward is stubbornness and hope.
A50 itself is silent on these questions which may be interpreted by the ECJ to mean that no legal right to revoke A. 50 exists. However, because of the separation of powers, and because the invocation of A.50 is essentially a political act, there may be no legal reason why the Council and the UK might not jointly agree to a revocation as a political act.
The only question remaining then would be whether the Council can do so by weighted majority vote, or whether unanimity would be required. A. 50 does make provision for the extension of the 2 year notice period under A.50, but only by unanimous agreement. As a revocation most closely resembles an indefinite extension, meaning the notice party never leaves, it seems reasonable to assume a revocation would also require unanimity.
Enter, stage right, some country with a grievance against the UK or the EU, and refusing to agree an indefinite extension/revocation unless their unique and perhaps entirely unrelated grievances are addressed. Gibraltar, treatment of migrants, Irish border backstop, UK budgetary rebate, various UK derogations anyone? Index of Frank's Diaries
The only question remaining then would be whether the Council can do so by weighted majority vote, or whether unanimity would be required. A. 50 does make provision for the extension of the 2 year notice period under A.50, but only by unanimous agreement. As a revocation most closely resembles an indefinite extension,
But then, the whole of Art.50 is shabby contract engineering from start to finish - it's clearly a provision that was never intended to be invoked.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
If there's a consensus within the EU that it would better if the UK stayed - and I believe there is - then the appropriate legal justifications will be found if the UK decides to change its position. Especially if it changes it after another referendum with a Remain result.
I don't think anyone in the EU wants May or her government to stay, except maybe Orban and some of the other far-right nutcases. But that's a different issue.
So some kind of concession must be extracted from the UK to allow them to remain at this point. It's possible that simply changing the government will be sufficient, but it's also possible it might not.
At the moment we're some way from the UK remaining. But Corbyn has said he supports another referendum, and there are rumours of another GE soon. (Although there always have been rumours of an Autumn election.)
So currently it's a remote possibility, but not an impossible one.
My best guess is that May is still trying to stall and posture to hide the fact that she's dedicated to a crash-out, and always has been, because that's what she agreed when she was anointed PM.
But I could be completely wrong about that - and she really is as incompetent, passive-aggressive, and delusional as she appears to be.
Do they want to vote on the withdrawal agreement? That's just a rerun of Remain/Leave dressed up differently. Schengen is toast!
Or perhaps The Deal, vs No Deal, vs Remain, with transferable votes.
A charitable interpretation of May's actions is that she set up Chequers as The Deal knowing it was impossible, which would leave Remain as the only possible result.
But that's more likely to be wishful thinking than reality.
Meanwhile rumours of a November election - possibly with a subtext of "This is your referendum" - are intensifying.
Of course, that could just be wishful thinking too.
In reality no one knows anything - including the people whose job it is to know things.
The leader of the union that is Labour's biggest financial backer has said remaining in the EU must not be an option in any new referendum on Brexit. Len McCluskey said it would be "wrong" and would risk pushing Labour voters who had backed Leave in the 2016 referendum to support the Conservatives.
Len McCluskey said it would be "wrong" and would risk pushing Labour voters who had backed Leave in the 2016 referendum to support the Conservatives.
To argue tendered termination of A50 by UK gov in lieu of its agreement to 19 Mar 2018 draft settlement (in progress) does not obviate the necessity of its own draft and its acceptance by the Council and EP before 3 March 2019 plenary session.
Apparently there is no form transmittal.
What might this UK document say? Are UK gov and parliament capable of agreement in themselves as to which domestic laws (nacted to date in anticipation of "frictionless" trade) they will admit and which they will repeal? How much time for reconciliation might UK gov stipulate? Further, is UK gov and parliament, under separate cover as they say, willing and able to compensate claims by interested private persons of "damage" by the proceedings of the A50 notice delivered?
Think about those consequences then speculate as to whether unanimity or qualified acceptance of this novelty by the EU Council and EP would or should be forthcoming. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
As for consequential damages of the aborted attempt to alter public policy, I believe the likely response to such claims will follow the line of reasoning advanced in Arkell v. Pressdram or Cox v. Cleveland.
The bill is an Act of Parliament now. Which means domestic laws retained and "in conflict with EU law" have most certainly been passed and endorsed by HRM.
Information about the Withrawal Bill is an index of FAQs. Apart from repeal of the ECA,
Why are we repealing the European Communities Act 1972 (ECA)?
Hence the "impasse" in concluding the 19 March draft settlement. A cursory review confirms that those items repealed domestically correspond with those remaining provisions UK refuses to endorse in the draft. Assurance of GFA enforcement is not the least of these, certainly.
But this agreement brings the "transition period" into effect. No signature, no transition period. This agreement compels UK compliance with EU directives in the "transition period"; it forbids UK bi-lateral FTAs with third-countries in the "transition period"; and does not restore UK voting rights in Council or EP.
It is no exaggeration to say, unwinding the Withdrawal Act will be as chaotic as it was to establish even if the ECJ were to entertain unilateral revocation of the A50. Before 31 October, which seems to be the Council's latest deadline for UK endorsement of the draft.
Finally, I don't see that either of those case citations appear among UK High Court judgments (with Miller) or pertain to UK torts litigation by persons, foreign and domestic, over, say, securities frauds or other misrepresentations of material fact. Market "uncertainty" as well as legal "uncertainty" are a powerful catalysts for turning investors into ... political activists. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
A revocation may be a consequence of some final settlement, but I don't think it can be regarded as simply an opening move in a dispute which can be resolved later and simply forgotten about afterwards. Otherwise, why wouldn't other members unhappy with something or other invoke A.50 to provide themselves with more leverage?
Invoking A.50 has certain consequences (and costs) in an of itself. (For instance the Irish stock market has been in marked decline despite a booming economy).
The A.50 process was therefore meant to be time limited and terminated after two years by default, after which the only remedy, if a departing member changes its mind, is to re-apply for membership under A.49.
But perhaps the Council itself has discretion, as a decision making body, to decide whether unanimity or weighted majority decision making is required. The ECJ may be reluctant to be prescriptive, given A.50's silence on the matter. Index of Frank's Diaries
The legitimacy (legal authority, laws) of UK gov to deliver the A50 notice --or-- is not disputed. Parliament granted gov this authority. (And have been since squabbling with amendments to its "Withdrawal Bill" who expeditiously to curtail gov's authority to negotiate with EU gov.)
The legitimacy of UK gov (excluding parliament) unilaterally to interpret provisions of LISBON in order to "revoke" its own A50 notice is a legal question (argued in this thread with political/legislative speculations) that is not the subject of SCS appeal for review by the ECJ.
More UK "cherry picking" --this time straight to the throat of separation of powers, republics hold so dear.
BWAH! Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
'You're gonna respect us even if we have to jump off the cliff to show you!' The downside being not just the damage on British side but also a long-term strategic splintering. It will be very toxic. Will they turn themselves into an American colony (like some Brexiters are dreaming) just out of spite? A remarkable reversal of fortune and irony of history. Anyway, not good for Europe's wealth and security. Schengen is toast!
Paradoxically this may play well at the Conservative conference where at least some Tories may rally around their disrespected leader. Being insulted by the rotten boche can be a badge of honour.
But certain battle lines have been drawn. May is on her last chance. If the October summit is a wash, there may not be a November one. At the very least May has to come up with a credible solution to the Irish border issue.
There have been suggestions that the Tories will look for a mandate from the N. Ireland people for a solution different from the mainland. This could be done by re-running assembly elections or having a referendum.
The DUP will probably go mad, but they can hardly object to new assembly elections given the current one is defunct. If nothing else it would buy the Tories some time.
From a N. Ireland perspective it would be refreshing to have a vote on something other than a pure sectarian tribal headcount. My only concern is that the vote should be on a very clearly worded "solution". Otherwise it will all just become a sectarian vote over sovereignty again, something which shouldn't be at issue. Index of Frank's Diaries
I think the plan is to stall for time and crash out.
Psychologically, May is an extremely dangerous person. Every single thing her government has done has been violently angry, destructive, dishonest, and abusive - as the NHS, the police, the EU, and the various victims of institutional xenophobia and racism will confirm. (Among many others.)
So i think it's realistic to expect her to pick the option that will do the most damage to everything around her - which of course is a no-deal car crash.
When you consider that rich Tories will be able to move their money out of the UK, wait until the pound crashes, then buy up the smoking rubble on the cheap, there's no particular reason for them to want a deal.
If the Tory party has a soul, which I doubt, there is surely a battle going on within it between these (and their very considerable influence) and the stodgier representatives of business-as-usual who fear the destruction and spoliation to come.
The frightening thing is that business-as-usual, in the absence of a champion, can only hope that May will serve their cause with a fudgy soft Brexit. I'm not sure she's dedicated to a crash-out. I doubt she has the consistency of mind for that, though you may be right she'd go there just out of spite. I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
Her husband, and presumably herself, will benefit mightily in the Shock Doctrine shark frenzy to come after "No Deal".
The business as usuals are simply useful idiots for lobby votes, turkeys voting for Christmas in a very loyal "the farmers knows what they're doing" kind of way.
The rest of us are roadkill keep to the Fen Causeway
OK, she's as mad as the rest of them. But as a way to stake your political career, it beats me. I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
Will she resign the leadership and make way for Johnson-Mogg - who will then sail merrily towards a WTO rules Brexit - not realising that Trump has more or less destroyed the WTO and that the future could be trade wars?
Or will she "go to the country" and campaign for acceptance of her deal as the only way to avoid the "chaos" of a no deal Brexit or a Corbyn Premiership?
It depends on whether her primary loyalty is to her party or to the country. If her primary loyalty is to herself, I suggest there is more dignity in going to the country and losing than simply resigning the leadership as an abject failure at the one main task you set yourself.
Given Corbyn would approve any decision to go to the country is their any constitutional impediment to her doing so - say if there is a prior challenge to her leadership in the 1922 committee? Is there any way Brexiteers can stop her? Index of Frank's Diaries
Right now there is a lot of smoke and fury around the Tory party. We will know far more about what it signifies after conference next week.
May's Strasburg conference was supposed to give her a bounce to see off her oppoents, just like her previous General election gamble. She is a serial stumbler, which is not a good look for a party of Government. But the Tories are still in compromise mode to maintain party unity. The brexit fanatics know they can bring May down anytime, but at the cost of destroying the Tory party. The Remainers and pro-business leavers know hope they can cobble an alliance across the Commons to prevent a "No Deal".
But a General election would be an end to all of their hopes. So, that's the least likely option unless a binding vote on the brexit deal is brought to the Commons. But even then, right wing anti-Corbyn Labour MPs will probably support the govt.
who knows? Really, it's all unknowable. People are plotting and planning in every corner, all hoping to advance their agenda and place themselves in positions of influence. the only thing they're ignoring is the well being of the country at large, which is stagnating and disintegrating due to the absnce of direction and leadership. keep to the Fen Causeway
If I were her I would call the DUP's bluff. If she follows through on the Backstop agreement with Ireland, the DUP have only one choice: suck it up or cause an election which might bring Corbyn to power. They will also be facing the Northern Ireland electorate having put Irish re-unification back on the agenda, ignored the N. Ireland vote to remain, not delivered on the £1 Billion in extra spending they promised, not restored the assembly or executive, in the middle of the Renewable Heat Scandal inquiry, and with Ian Paisley narrowly missing recall for taking over 50k in Sri Lankan bribes/holidays. If they end up with less votes than Sinn Fein their days could be numbered. Do they want to take that risk?
Looked at from the EU side I sense they scent blood and are preparing ever more seriously for a no deal Brexit. All have decided that no deal is better than undermining CUSM. If they play hardball enough, they may even get a new government/referendum with some possibility of UK remaining in a somewhat chastened state. There is almost zero incentive for them to seriously compromise at this stage. They're winning, so why give a sucker an even break? Index of Frank's Diaries
May might hope to survive as party leader going into the ensuing election, because she's delusional. My tenner would be on Boris Mogg. I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
Umm, maybe you hadn't noticed, but madness is their defining characteristic keep to the Fen Causeway
Key points from the [House of Commons] standards committee's findings Mr Paisley went on three luxury holidays to Sri Lanka at the expense of the Sri Lankan government in 2013. The committee found the cost "much higher" than the £50,000 Mr Paisley estimated. In 2014, Mr Paisley wrote to the prime minister to lobby against supporting a UN resolution on Sri Lanka over alleged human rights abuses. By failing to declare his trip, Mr Paisley "breached the rule against paid advocacy, the committee said. The committee acknowledged that there was "inconsistent guidance" in relation to registering such trips, but it did not "exonerate Mr Paisley from breaching the advocacy rule".
Mr Paisley went on three luxury holidays to Sri Lanka at the expense of the Sri Lankan government in 2013. The committee found the cost "much higher" than the £50,000 Mr Paisley estimated. In 2014, Mr Paisley wrote to the prime minister to lobby against supporting a UN resolution on Sri Lanka over alleged human rights abuses. By failing to declare his trip, Mr Paisley "breached the rule against paid advocacy, the committee said. The committee acknowledged that there was "inconsistent guidance" in relation to registering such trips, but it did not "exonerate Mr Paisley from breaching the advocacy rule".
The recall petition failed by 444 votes to achieve the 10% of the electorate required to force Ian Paisley's dismissal. His constituency is the safest, most loyalist dominated constituency in N. Ireland, so many voters may have taken the view that his recall would be pointless: He would easily win the resulting bye-election thus providing the DUP with a public exoneration and propaganda victory. This was the DUP remains tainted by his corruption, although DUP leader, Arlene Foster's misbehaviour over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal is a far more serious issue. Index of Frank's Diaries
They didn't know what the EU did and didn't know how they did it. So, it's no surprise they didn't know how to organise leaving.
then I read this. In it he talks about the dangers of people in Government who simply hve no idea of what their departments do or how they do them.
Guardian - Alex Bladsel - Michael Lewis: The Big Short author on how Trump is gambling with nuclear disaster
Lewis was contemplating the nation's dire risk portfolio when Trump tapped the former Texas governor Rick Perry to be secretary of the Department of Energy. Five years earlier, Perry had said in a presidential debate that he wanted to eliminate that cabinet-level department. At least, he had tried to say it: in a moment that helped sweep his ruinous candidacy into oblivion, Perry forgot the department's name. "It's bad enough Rick Perry has no sense of this," Lewis thought after hearing of his appointment. But he had to acknowledge he didn't know anything about the department either. So he decided to find out. "It took about two phone calls before I learned, `Oh, that's where the nuclear weapons are. Oh my God.'" What Lewis went on to discover was even more shocking. On the morning after the presidential election, as the balloons from the previous night's parties are still settling on the ballroom floors, the president-elect is expected to send teams into every department of the US federal government to begin the transition of power. But at the Department of Energy last November - and, it turned out, at many of the country's 14 other federal departments - one day passed, and then another, and no one came. Bureaucrats in the Obama administration had worked for a year to prepare thousands of pages of briefings on the risks their successors could face. Yet by Thanksgiving, no one from the Trump team had arrived to receive them. "I was fucking nervous ... ," Steve Bannon later told friends about Trump's handling of the transition, Lewis reports in the book. "I go, `Holy fuck, this guy doesn't know anything. And he doesn't give a shit.'"
"It's bad enough Rick Perry has no sense of this," Lewis thought after hearing of his appointment. But he had to acknowledge he didn't know anything about the department either. So he decided to find out. "It took about two phone calls before I learned, `Oh, that's where the nuclear weapons are. Oh my God.'"
What Lewis went on to discover was even more shocking. On the morning after the presidential election, as the balloons from the previous night's parties are still settling on the ballroom floors, the president-elect is expected to send teams into every department of the US federal government to begin the transition of power. But at the Department of Energy last November - and, it turned out, at many of the country's 14 other federal departments - one day passed, and then another, and no one came.
Bureaucrats in the Obama administration had worked for a year to prepare thousands of pages of briefings on the risks their successors could face. Yet by Thanksgiving, no one from the Trump team had arrived to receive them. "I was fucking nervous ... ," Steve Bannon later told friends about Trump's handling of the transition, Lewis reports in the book. "I go, `Holy fuck, this guy doesn't know anything. And he doesn't give a shit.'"
Both the SNP & Lib Dems would carry it through. And I suspect there would be a few Labour votes too.
But the capacity for the ERG to throw spanners in the works to ensure no deal should not be under-estimated keep to the Fen Causeway
All the more that May is not the Thatcher she has tried to mimic, that she will never unite Tory MPs behind her, and that the hard-Brexit leaders dream of nothing better than her downfall and replacement (by ME, says Boris).
So getting the ghostly fudge through Parliament would seem to call for help from Labour MPs. Corbyn would doubtless like to see the UK out of the EU before he takes over. Iirc around 200 Labour MPs followed his lead (three-line whip) in voting with May on triggering Article 50. How much have things changed since? I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
Jeremy Corbyn has said he will back giving the British people a final say on Brexit in a new referendum if party members vote for it at Labour's conference this week. ... Mr Corbyn also said he would join forces with rebel Tories to vote down Theresa May's Brexit plans in parliament if they did not meet Labour's tests, with The Independent reporting on Saturday that the party would then maximise pressure on the prime minister by seeking a motion of no confidence in the government if her proposals fell.
...
Mr Corbyn also said he would join forces with rebel Tories to vote down Theresa May's Brexit plans in parliament if they did not meet Labour's tests, with The Independent reporting on Saturday that the party would then maximise pressure on the prime minister by seeking a motion of no confidence in the government if her proposals fell.
Labour will launch a plan to force an election by seeking a motion of no confidence in the government within days if Theresa May's Brexit deal is defeated in parliament, The Independent has learnt. Jeremy Corbyn and his top team will launch an attempt to force the Conservative administration to go to the people at what they believe will be a moment of maximum weakness for the prime minister. Multiple sources confirmed party chiefs have game-planned their approach if Ms May's beleaguered proposals are vetoed in a crucial commons vote or if she fails to get a deal in Europe, which looks increasingly likely after EU leaders torpedoed them earlier this week.
Jeremy Corbyn and his top team will launch an attempt to force the Conservative administration to go to the people at what they believe will be a moment of maximum weakness for the prime minister.
Multiple sources confirmed party chiefs have game-planned their approach if Ms May's beleaguered proposals are vetoed in a crucial commons vote or if she fails to get a deal in Europe, which looks increasingly likely after EU leaders torpedoed them earlier this week.
Seems clearer, but there's still some wiggle room. I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
As one Labour trade Unionist put it some time ago: You have one poll to decide on whether to take industrial action, and then another on whether your members accept whatever deal you have negotiated on their behalf.
The precise form of any referendum question still has to be decided, however, and depends on whether May actually negotiates a deal. Will it be Remain vs. May's deal, or May's deal vs. No deal? (A three choice -vote 1,2,3 in order of your choice - with votes for the most unpopular option recounted on the basis of their second choice) seems much too complicated for a British people used to a FPTP system.
If there is no deal, it becomes a simple Remain vs. no deal Brexit choice. If the House of Commons votes down May's deal, arguably that option is defunct too, so the choice is Remain vs. No deal Brexit. The choice which must be avoided is No deal vs. May's deal, as it would disenfranchise everyone who voted Remain before.
That is probably why May, and any deal she might negotiate has to go. Corbyn is right to look for a general election to remove her, but would also be right to promise a second referendum as part of his manifesto for the election.
The EU needs to be clear it is not going to negotiate a new deal with Corbyn having failed to have any deal they negotiated with May rejected by the House of Commons or the British people. What they offer Corbyn must be no different to what they offered May so the choice in any referendum will be Remain or a no deal Brexit. Index of Frank's Diaries
A 2nd referendum is acceptable to no one and time has run out. The Tory government may fall, that won't solve the Brexit deal ... London in panic mode. Finally!
Great presentation Frank! They should have listened.
Indeed Kabuki theater from the onset ... wrote that in a diary too. Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
Kabuki theatre
I can't help it, but these last weeks of Downing Street 10 appears to me part of a Kabuki theatre of the Tories with May, Johnson and Davies in the lead roles.
There is no way Michel Barnier and the EU nations will accept the Chequers White Paper as a new start for negotiations. Intent to let the "negotiations" fail and place blame on EU intransigence.
Once the talks have failed, the real Brexiteers will become part of government again, perhaps under a new Tory leader.
That's my take of things that pass. It couldn't be utter stupidity, can it? Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
The EU is intensifying its preparations for a no-deal Brexit amid heightened fears in European capitals that Jeremy Corbyn will order his MPs to vote down any deal struck in Brussels, a leaked document reveals. Labour's stated goal to reject Theresa May's deal in order to spark a general election has provoked a rush of activity in Brussels, where the party's plans are regarded as one of the substantial risks to the negotiations. Shortly after Corbyn ends his leader's speech at the Labour party conference, one of the European commission's most senior officials is to address EU ambassadors on contingency planning in the event of a breakdown in talks, or the likely failure of the UK parliament to ratify any agreement struck in Brussels.
Labour's stated goal to reject Theresa May's deal in order to spark a general election has provoked a rush of activity in Brussels, where the party's plans are regarded as one of the substantial risks to the negotiations.
Shortly after Corbyn ends his leader's speech at the Labour party conference, one of the European commission's most senior officials is to address EU ambassadors on contingency planning in the event of a breakdown in talks, or the likely failure of the UK parliament to ratify any agreement struck in Brussels.
Emphasis mine I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
Hard line Brexiteers will reject it because of the compromises it will inevitably contain, include not a lot of substance for the £40 Billion up front payment. The DUP will reject it because the possibility of "regularity divergence" does not rule out to possibility of controls "in the Irish sea", and Remainers will reject it because it is so obviously far inferior to full membership or the sort of promises the Leavers made during the referendum campaign.
It's hard to be sure because there are a few Leavers in the Labour party who owe no loyalty to Corbyn and who are crazy enough to think that Brexiteers care for their constituents.
If anything has changed in my perception in the past few weeks it is that the May government has exceeded even my wildest expectations in its own incompetence, with the result that the probability of both a no deal Brexit and of Remain has increased perceptively.
The Labour Party's slumbering advance towards supporting a second referendum has increased both its electability, and the chance of Tory Remainers bring down the Government. Some achievements all round. Index of Frank's Diaries
According to the well-known model created by Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, the first three stages of grief are denial, anger and bargaining. In their approach to Northern Ireland and the Irish Border, the Brexiteers have broadly followed this pattern. First, clothing their naked indifference in wilful ignorance, they denied that the problem existed at all. Next, they resorted to anger at the bloody Irish, the perpetual disturbers of the British peace without whom Brexit would have been, as promised, the easiest deal in the history of the world. And now we are at the bargaining stage. But there is a dramatic twist: the bargaining is not so much about Northern Ireland. It is bargaining with Northern Ireland. The sheer cynicism of what is going on is so breathtaking that it is hard to credit and thus easy to miss. The British approach to Brexit has been so chaotic that it has seemed silly to look for method in the madness. In relation to the Irish dimension of Brexit, we've become inured to magical thinking (the wonderful efficacy of not-yet-invented technological solutions), blithe misapprehension and sheer fatuousness (Boris Johnson's insistence that the Border is just like that between two London boroughs). This has been oddly comforting. Since this stuff is so evidently childish, we can wait for the adults to enter the room. But the comfort is false. The adults did enter the room. The Brexit negotiations are now in the hands of serious, skilful professional mandarins. And they've done something remarkable with the Irish Question. Remarkable in that it takes some nerve even to contemplate it. For what it comes down to is a strategy of using the human suffering of the Troubles to try to extract a favourable post-Brexit trade deal from the EU. You have to be very clever to think of trying this - and utterly shameless.
First, clothing their naked indifference in wilful ignorance, they denied that the problem existed at all. Next, they resorted to anger at the bloody Irish, the perpetual disturbers of the British peace without whom Brexit would have been, as promised, the easiest deal in the history of the world. And now we are at the bargaining stage.
But there is a dramatic twist: the bargaining is not so much about Northern Ireland. It is bargaining with Northern Ireland. The sheer cynicism of what is going on is so breathtaking that it is hard to credit and thus easy to miss.
The British approach to Brexit has been so chaotic that it has seemed silly to look for method in the madness. In relation to the Irish dimension of Brexit, we've become inured to magical thinking (the wonderful efficacy of not-yet-invented technological solutions), blithe misapprehension and sheer fatuousness (Boris Johnson's insistence that the Border is just like that between two London boroughs).
This has been oddly comforting. Since this stuff is so evidently childish, we can wait for the adults to enter the room.
But the comfort is false. The adults did enter the room. The Brexit negotiations are now in the hands of serious, skilful professional mandarins. And they've done something remarkable with the Irish Question. Remarkable in that it takes some nerve even to contemplate it.
For what it comes down to is a strategy of using the human suffering of the Troubles to try to extract a favourable post-Brexit trade deal from the EU. You have to be very clever to think of trying this - and utterly shameless.
Essentially what Fintan O'Toole is arguing that the British position is to force the EU to concede the benefits of the Customs Union and Single Market membership without the responsibilities, as the only way to ensure there isn't a hard customs border in N. Ireland.
The EU have been prepared to concede this for N. Ireland as a special case, because it is relatively small in the context of the EU as a whole, and because of the special historical circumstances surrounding it.
However the EU has not been prepared to concede this for the UK as a whole, or even just for industrial products as opposed to services, thus creating a need for customs controls somewhere between Great Britain and the EU.
Worse, from Theresa May's point of you, most in her own party have rejected her Chequers proposals as well, as turning the UK into a "rule taker" and vassal state of the EU.
Hence the impasse, with the DUP standing in the way of the obvious solution.
It is really quite something to seek now, in the midst of a self-inflicted crisis of authority in Britain, to turn the North's suffering and the EU's care for it to advantage. The dead are surely not to be bargained with. The next stage in the grieving process after bargaining is depression. Perhaps we are moving into it now, for it is deeply depressing to find what is still in many ways a great country giving way to such cynicism. It is a reminder that the damage from Brexit is not just economic or political. It is also moral.
The next stage in the grieving process after bargaining is depression. Perhaps we are moving into it now, for it is deeply depressing to find what is still in many ways a great country giving way to such cynicism.
It is a reminder that the damage from Brexit is not just economic or political. It is also moral.
If the SNP were to proffer all their votes for getting an enhanced deal though against the wishes of the ERG at the expense of Ulster, the DUP would find the very doors of Westminster slammed in their faces.
Things are getting wldly chaotic in Whitehall and the Conservative party conference is gonna be the hottest journalist ticket since the gladiators fought in the Colosseum cos they're gonna have a ringside seat at a bloodbath. keep to the Fen Causeway
I know thy works, that thou art neither cold nor hot: I would thou wert cold or hot. So because thou art lukewarm, and neither hot nor cold, I will spew thee out of my mouth. Revelation 3,16-17
Revelation 3,16-17
New song & video:OWN YOUR SH!T (sweary)My heartfelt message to the Brexit ringleaders and cheerleaders (please RT).https://t.co/8C4POiFzMj pic.twitter.com/ClGJLFeRtr— Mitch Benn 🇪🇺 (@MitchBenn) 21. September 2018
Omg who made this masterpiece? pic.twitter.com/wnXToTLSYr— sarah (@SarahDuggers) 14. August 2018
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