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The smart folks at Eurointelligence seem to have become increasingly pessimistic...
EU doubling down on internal UK customs border - Eurointelligence
Word has reached us that the EU is now firming up its opposition to Chequers in such a way that we see little chance of retreat. Michael Barnier and his team have commissioned a report that suggests the long-term costs of Chequers to the EU would exceed the short-term costs of a hard Brexit.
It is possible that the two sides still reach a deal? For one, events might intrude. The UK might have a new government before Brexit - unlikely but possible. The mood in the UK population might turn against Brexit in a way that has not happened yet. EU member states may change their position once they acknowledge the reality of a hard Brexit which they have not yet. Also, Barnier's calculations are based on the result of an economic model - the kind of which always overestimated the impact of the single market in the past - against actual losses of income and jobs. We keep noting reports, in the German media in particular, about a second referendum. A hard Brexit would come as a total shock.
by Bernard on Tue Oct 2nd, 2018 at 06:46:03 AM EST

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