Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
The next UK election will be held in 2022 unless:

  1. an early election motion being passed by a super-majority of two-thirds in the House of Commons

  2.  a vote of no confidence in the government which is not followed by a vote of confidence within 14 days

DUP has said they will vote "yes" on confidence motions so May has her majority unless Tory back benchers decide to commit political suicide.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 06:19:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
May is an outstanding example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.  She won't resign because that would deprive the UK of her brilliance.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 06:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am assuming the Commons will have voted to instruct the government to do something May can't or won't do, so already there will be a Commons majority against May by hypothesis...

The question is not the DUP but whether Tory rebel backbenchers would vote a resolution against the Tory government's wishes, and then vote for May in a confidence motion.

Human preferences are not transitive, as we know, so anything is possible, but...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 01:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One view is that this mess may significantly change the UK system of government.

"...a group of MPs, including former Tory ministers, are reported by the Sunday Times to be working on a way to allow non-government members to take control of the timetable and bring forward legislation making it illegal to leave the EU without a deal, if Mrs May loses Tuesday's vote.
Downing Street has said it is "extremely concerned" about the reported plot, which it says could potentially overturn centuries of Parliamentary precedent.

Currently, the government has precedence in the House of Commons. It controls how and when business, including legislation, is organised.

If MPs can get an amendment to change how and when Commons business is arranged passed by a majority, backbench business could then take precedence over government business.

This could represent a threat not just to Brexit legislation but to the government's ability to govern, says Downing Street.
It would mean that without control over time in the Commons, the government has no control over parliamentary business, so cannot get through policies and legislation easily."

by asdf on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 03:17:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the Tories want to have their cake and eat it. Defeat May's very raison d'être, but keep her on as PM while forcing her to implement ... Something else, but they're not sure what.

Parliamentary precedent doesn't allow it, but as we saw last Week, parliamentary precedent evolves...

A multi-party parliamentary democracy? How very... European.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 04:52:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This provision would give Tory Remainers the opportunity to vote no confidence in the government, and then vote confidence again within 14 days if the government agreed to a second referendum.

Theresa May would then be presented with a clear choice - agree a second referendum or fight a general election - a general election in which Corbyn might well campaign on the basis of a second referendum (on a Labour negotiated Brexit deal) as a means of keeping both Leavers and Remainers united behind his party.

Either way a second referendum then becomes likely. But do Tory Remianers have the balls to vote no confidence?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 07:14:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But do Tory Remainers have the balls to vote no confidence?

No. (Well-informed) turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 07:46:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It all depends on how many of them are in safe seats. Current polls don't show a massive swing away from the Tories in any case. The main risk would be a risk of de-selection by their local constituency Tories and would depend on the make-up of the local party and their relationship with it. If it is a snap poll there may not be time for de-selection to occur in any case. Most Remainers have lost ministerial office by this stage anyway, so most have little to lose.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 08:16:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Top Diaries

A Special Place in Hell

by Frank Schnittger - Feb 14

Ingeniería Una Revolución

by Oui - Feb 7


by Frank Schnittger - Jan 31

Democracy and the UK

by Frank Schnittger - Jan 29

Occasional Series