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It's either no deal, or...
  1. Next Monday May proposes to the Commons to vote on requesting a long Brexit delay (until the end of 2020) from the EU Council
  2. No customs union but the common transit convention which...
    ...is used for the movement of goods between the 28 EU Member States, the EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Switzerland), Turkey (since 1 December 2012), the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (since 1 July 2015) and Serbia (since 1 February 2016).  The procedure is based on the Convention of 20 May 1987 on a common transit procedure. The rules are effectively identical to those of the Union transit.
    This takes care of the Irish border issue and may even preserve Just-in-Time supply chains.
  3. No free movement of people, so no single market membership but some sort of free trade agreement. Free travel area in the British Isles continues.
Let's call this not Norway-plus but Switzerland-minus.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 09:15:16 AM EST
Scope of the EEA

The EEA goes beyond traditional free trade agreements (FTAs) by extending the full rights and obligations of the EU's internal market to the EFTA countries (with the exception of Switzerland). The EEA incorporates the four freedoms of the internal market (free movement of goods, people, services and capital) and related policies (competition, transport, energy, and economic and monetary cooperation). The agreement includes horizontal policies strictly related to the four freedoms: social policies (including health and safety at work, labour law and the equal treatment of men and women); policies on consumer protection, the environment, statistics and company law; and a number of flanking policies, such as those relating to research and technological development, which are not based on the EU acquis or legally binding acts, but are implemented through cooperation activities.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 10:33:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not the EEA. Switzerland isn't in it. Everywhere you see "the EEA and Switzerland". No freedom of movement.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 01:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No Freedom of movement between the EU and Switzerland? I beg to differ. Whatever the fine print, effective free movement exists. May couldn't sign up to what Switzerland applies.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 02:23:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But customs controls do exist - I've seen them several times in the train.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 02:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've seen Swiss citizens stop at the motorway customs booth, declare the six bottles of wine they bought in France, and pay 1 franc duty on each bottle.

I'm sure we can rely on the Irish to do the same...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 04:43:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While this remark is funny, until BREXIT, it was customary (ha ha) for gov'ts to establish de minimis value of goods declared exempt from duty collection. Even arriving by passenger plane.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 05:15:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean Switzerland is not in the EEA and thus the EU is forced to use language such as "the EEA and Switzerland" all over the place. For instance, when talking about free movement in the single market.

The UK would have no freedom of movement.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 06:18:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The title of the publication I linked:

The European Economic Area (EEA), Switzerland and the North

The European Economic Area (EEA) was set up in 1994 to extend the EU's provisions on its internal market to the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) countries. Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are parties to the EEA. Switzerland is a member of EFTA but does not take part in the EEA.  The EU and EEA partners (Norway and Iceland) are also linked by various `northern policies' and forums which focus on the rapidly evolving northern reaches of Europe and the Arctic region as a whole.

Switzerland  

As an EFTA member, Switzerland took part in the negotiations for the EEA Agreement and signed the agreement on 2 May 1992. Immediately after that, the Swiss Government submitted an application for accession to the EU on 22 May 1992. However, following a referendum held on 6 December 1992 that yielded a vote against participating in the EEA, the Swiss Federal Council stopped pursuing the country's EU and EEA membership. Since then, Switzerland has developed its relations with the EU through bilateral agreements in order to safeguard its economic integration with the EU. Bilateral relations were severely strained following the February 2014 anti-immigration initiative [initiative approved by 50.3% to curb immigration - Oui], the outcome of which called into question the principles of free movement and the single market that underpin those relations. On 16 December 2016, the Swiss Parliament adopted the Law on Foreigners implementing the result of the 2014 referendum in a manner that limited its effect, which paved the way for the beginning of the normalisation of EU-Swiss relations. The law gives priority to Swiss residents in job recruitment in the sectors with above-average unemployment rates. The EU saw modifications to the Law on Foreigners as a step in the right direction and considered that this law could now be implemented in a way that would not restrict the rights of EU citizens under the free movement of persons.

Swiss Cabinet Opposes Move to Curb EU Immigration in Referendum | US News - Nov. 30, 2018 |

The Swiss government said it opposed curbing immigration from the European Union as proposed in a planned referendum because a yes vote could harm exports to the country's biggest trade partner. The 28-nation EU now insists its citizens be allowed to live and work freely in non-member Switzerland in exchange for enhanced Swiss access to the bloc's single market.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 02:55:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
bearing in minds that delaying brexit beyond the next EU elections will cost the UK many billions

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 12:36:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How so?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 12:52:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I understand it, it's because if we haven't formally left then we're still fully fledged members. Which means that the EU parliament sets aside seats for the UK deleration, even if no representatives are sent.

this means that there are cost implications for decisions made for the entirety of that particular parliament which the UK is liable for; in addition to the very same costs we are already liable for.

Even if we walk away with no deal, the first trade deal the UK attempts with europe will come with a "plus £39 billion" attached. And that fgure climbs as we remain

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 08:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Costs and benefits.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 12:17:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A fun thing I came across lately is that the UK government has a perverse incentive on EU funding: grants to the UK are sort of offset against payments, so that if the EU sends money to help develop abandoned Welsh  mining communities or whatever it means the rebate is reduced.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 18th, 2019 at 12:33:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does a transit agreement "solve" the Irish border?

The Union transit procedure is used for customs transit operations between the EU Member States (and Andorra and San Marino) and is in general applicable to the movement of non-Union goods for which customs duties and other charges at import are at stake, and of Union goods, which, between their point of departure and point of destination in the EU, have to pass through the territory of a third country.

I don't see how it helps or applies at all, except for goods transiting from Ireland to the Continent through the UK.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 02:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would be a big help for the Irish economy.  Not sure what the UK would get out of it.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 06:03:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It helps because customs duties and paperwork are handled at the point of departure or arrival and not at the border.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 17th, 2019 at 06:14:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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