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Long term, I think the main effect wil be the split of the Alliance. In 2022, the liberal parties and the conservatives will have traded barbs for years and will be much less keen on a right bloc as default.

This is the logical result of burying the 2014 December agreement in 2015, and the right bloc party leaders promising to vote down the Löfven government. So a number of shotstowards the feets there.

Unfortunately, this will probably lead to a weakening of the cordon sanitaire around the far right Sweden Democrats. The Sweden Democrats are currently pushing the idea of a conservative bloc (including themselves, of course) and I woulld not count on the Moderates and Christian Democrats to maintain the distance without the liberal parties there to force them.

Another winner may very well be the Left party. As the cabinet is forced to seek compromises with the liberals, the Left is free to gun away from the left and try to capture traditionally Social Democratic issues and voters.

by fjallstrom on Wed Jan 16th, 2019 at 02:42:17 PM EST

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