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There could be trouble ahead for both Labour and the Tories if Farage follows through on his threat to to contest every seat absent the Conservative's abandoning Boris' Brexit deal, "which is not Brexit", and joining a leave alliance for a "clean" no deal Brexit instead.

Although Farage is targetting Boris' deal, his party is more of a threat in more working class Labour seats with Leave majorities but where voters are reluctant to vote Tory.

However just by joining the national conversation about Brexit and where the UK should go next, he complicates the picture for Boris and makes it harder to unite the Leave vote.

Leave voters may also be more inclined to remember the last three years of chaotic Tory rule if they have an alternative Leave party to vote for.

While recent opinion polls are continuing to show a clear (average 11%) lead for the Conservatives, Labour is increasing its lead over the Lib Dems (average c. 8%), which means the familiar two horse first past the post horse race seems to be taking shape again.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Nov 1st, 2019 at 02:03:25 PM EST

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