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Polls point to Boris Johnson at risk of May's electoral debacle
Two-and-a-half years after Theresa May's risky decision to call a snap election that lost the Conservatives their majority, her successor Boris Johnson finds himself in a strikingly similar position.

An analysis by the Financial Times of the opinion polls suggests Johnson's party is facing an electoral landscape hardly changed since the 2017 election was called. Labour was polling on 25 per cent on Tuesday, exactly the same level as when May called her snap vote.

Worryingly for Johnson, however, the Conservatives are significantly further behind than at the start of the last campaign. Whereas the Tories were polling 44 per cent on the day the previous election was called, they are currently projected to garner 36 per cent share of the vote.

The political circumstances mirror those of May, who was seeking to win a majority to secure a Brexit deal; Johnson is doing so to achieve the same goal.

Johnson's push for a vote before Christmas was in part motivated by his party's healthy lead in polls, which has grown steadily since he became prime minister in July. Last week, one pollster had the Tories as much as 16 points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.

But polling experts have warned that the December 12th election will be even more unpredictable and difficult to anticipate than the last. The British Election Survey noted earlier this month that there was an "unprecedented" level of voter churn between the parties and allegiances were shifting as the electorate orientates down Remain/Leave lines.

John Curtice, the UK's leading pollster, said that Johnson's hopes of victory would depend on how well the Brexit party does. The better Nigel Farage's party polls, the more votes they will take off the Tories and risk letting in Labour.

"This election is not about Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, it's about Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Labour's hopes rest heavily on the Brexit party doing well - that's the paradox of this campaign," he said

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Oct 30th, 2019 at 01:12:02 PM EST

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