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Unless the Leave Party siphons enough votes from the Tories I'm thinking the SNP will win some seats in Scotland, possibly approaching their 2015 'take,' and otherwise status quo.

IOW, "meet the new parliament, same as the old parliament."

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 30th, 2019 at 03:48:11 PM EST
I wouldn't even try to predict. A slightly different hung parliament feels most likely, but the situation is chaotic - we're watching the transition from one configuration of parties to another during a major constitutional upheaval driven in part by massive changes to the communications and media infrastructure. I'm not convinced old models or previous results are terribly useful.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 30th, 2019 at 03:50:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, that's my feeling too.

Even tho I think the polls inflate the Tory position and under-estimate Labour's, I simply don't see any major changes to the numbers.

tbh, they should. Brexit notwithstanding, the country is in a serious mess from 10 years of Tory austerity and, by rights, we should be looking at a Labour win of 1997 standards. But, truly, we are in strange days

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 30th, 2019 at 04:40:13 PM EST
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Yeah, but Corbyn is a crap Labour leader in this environment. He can't operate effectively in the media world that exists.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 30th, 2019 at 04:51:53 PM EST
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If you and I can agree on one issue, there is hope for all of the UK's political institutions and ahh vassal states.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Oct 30th, 2019 at 05:56:03 PM EST
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It will be interesting to see how much of the campaigning is on Brexit and how much is on traditional Labour/Conservative partisan issues.
by asdf on Thu Oct 31st, 2019 at 12:55:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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