Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
it my not matter for long. If brexit happens, Ulster will peel away from the UK within a few years.

Once Ulster's identity was as an essential part of the United Kingdom, but its future economic survival is dependent upon the Republic. You cannot expect the fundamentalists in the DUP to understand that, but they'll be roadkill as everybody else embraces the EU.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Oct 31st, 2019 at 08:55:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the odds are 6/5 and pick 'em of a return to violence in NI and the Republic.  It would take a statesman with the talents of Bismark to pull the island together and I don't see one.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Nov 1st, 2019 at 09:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I remain skeptical that NI violence will return to anything like previous levels.

The UK Secret State couldn't give a toss about unionists these days. The Tories have signalled that Ulster is no longer an essential asset and they certainly aren't going to return to a military commitment. Everybody knows where that goes and it's just an expensive mistake.

I'm also unconvinced that the republicans really want to return to the twin track bullet and ballot bo approach.

Yes, there are nutters on both sides whose criminal careers improve with the "cover" of para-military activity, but the reaction to the death of Lyra McKee showed that, outside of fairly limited circlees, these people are very much on their own. They are almost entirely without international support and the UK govt isn't going to either help the unionists with intelligence or money, nor provide a new IRA with a target.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 4th, 2019 at 06:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gove and company are the ones who didn't like the GFA because they wanted a military victory, whatever that meant.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 09:51:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, I'd like to say his was an isolated voice within the current Tory party but 20 years seems to have infected them with an awful amnesia. But then again, gove et al weren't the ones who were suffering from the war, so why should they care anyway? It wasn't even their money being squandered.

However, brexit will definitely force the Empire-nostalgists to review their options. The UK will have to review its pending priorities significantly and the anti-Soviet strategies of misile subs and the utterly pathetic aircraft carriers and the F-35 vanity aircraft too expensive to be risked in battle will have to be trashed.

The little englanders may find their brexit reveals England as having become very little indeed.

So, the open-ended excessive commttments that make re-entry into an armed conflict in Ulster simply don't make any sense. Surely even to an idiot like Gove

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 03:10:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How do they escape a military commitment if the violence levels do rise? What do they do if police and customs are targeted?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 10:30:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think they'll abandon Ulster. They''ll run away.

They might, might, offer some form of small subsidy for re-location to unionist, but given what's happening in Scotland and what will certainly happen on the ground in Ulster, I think they'd be wise to cut their losses and get out.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 03:16:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They could treat it as a criminal matter for the police to handle, trying to track down the guilty parties and bring them to a fair trial, all in order to isolate the violent elements from the community at large.

Though looking at the so called war on terror, maybe they just can't help themselves.

by fjallstrom on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 05:21:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
you know that we don't want to fight
but, by jingo, if we do,
we've got the guns, we've got the men
we've got the money too oh shit, maybe not

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 05:43:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First Rule of GWOT (Global War On Terror): All terrorists are in other countries, so you have to send your troops to those countries.
by rifek on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 02:30:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Their terrorists are in other countries. Our terrorists wear our uniforms...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 09:22:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit: How it threatens Ireland and how Americans can help | Irsh Times |

The Brexiteers are also dismissive of the leaders of the 26 nations of the EU. However, the UK will need a new trade deal with the US under its new status. US Senator Tom Cotton (Republican, Arkansas) sent a letter to Boris Johnson, signed by 45 senators (out of 100 total senators) pledging to back a trade deal with Britain with or without a deal. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (Democrat, California) however has assured the Irish government and warned the British government that a UK/US trade deal will not pass the House Of Representatives if it threatens Ireland. This is recognition that a hard border threatens the delicate peace.

Will Belfast ever have a Berlin Wall moment and tear down its 'peace walls'?

House committee passes Suozzi, King Brexit resolution protecting Ireland border

From archive, troubles and arms ...

Irish Northern Aid Committee
Gaddafi and the IRA's explosive relationship

by Oui on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 12:58:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The letter (facsimile), which is not linked to the article.
First, if Britain leaves the EU with no deal, we will work with our administration, your government, and our friends in the EU to minimize disruptions in critical matters such as international financial transactions, and the shipment of medicine, food, and other vital supplies.

Second, irrespective of how Brexit occurs, we recommit to the NATO security alliance and the "Vive Eyes" intelligence partnership. We also will advocate for a new bilateral trade agreement, as early as your Brexit terms would allow, that reflects the centuries of open commerce between our nations.

Finally, we pledge our friendship in the future of the United Kingdom. Our soldiers have fought together from the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of Afghanistan. Together, we have toppled tyrants and liberated the oppressed. The shared stroy of our special relationship is a great one indeed, and we look forward to adding more chapters still.

There is no "recognition that a hard border threatens the delicate peace," because the number of Irish republican fin-tech entrepreneurs in USA (21st cen. "diaspora") who give a damn is exceedingly refined. Surprising no one but Mr Rooney's parochial apprehension of US politics since 1922. Quoting another deluded "contributor," Mr Dowd:
[Tom Cotton] pro British stance in the event of a no-deal Brexit will put him and the GOP senators in direct opposition with the Irish government supporters in the Congress. Speaker Nancy ["Pay-go"] Pelosi and Ways and Means Chair Ritchie ["Show me your TAXES"] Neal have vowed to block a trade deal if there is a no-deal Brexit and an attempt to restore the border.
Because it costs nothing to jawbone when passing through Dublin. The House does not pass US "trade deals". It may vote to pass more cash to the grande bourgeoisie of the Republic, some day in a little remarked provision in the next NDAA, if the price is right for data transfers from behind the iron GDPR. quid pro quo, y'all.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 02:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The letter from Boris' Republican friends was congratulatory and signed on August 1, 2019.

Nancy Pelosi says the House can block a negotiated trade agreement - TPA. I assumed she knows.

Related reading ...

Fast Track Trade Promotion Authority | Brookings - 2001 |
What's Really in the New Trade Promotion Authority Bill? | Cato - 2015 |

Boris tried to fast-track his Brexit deal through HoC --- been negotiating with Brussels, not the White House.

by Oui on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 07:01:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pls stop trying to learn US gov from US MSM. Readers here might assume people of the "Irish-American" persuasion are suddenly, genetically incapable of loyalty to the Republican Party or, worse, not motivated by profit.

Instead reconsider unstated assumptions about legitimate executive powers:

  1. The hag Nancy Pelosi.
  2. US Constitution, Artcle II, advice and consent.
  3. International Agreements and U.S. Law
  4. Cabinet US Trade Representative, TRADE ACT OF 1974, Part-4 (§ 2171) Office, Part-5 (§§ 2191 - 2194) limits of congressional "consideration"
  5. US Constitution, Article I, regulates WHAT?
  6. The hag Nancy Pelosi.
  7. United States Code (statute) expresses the limits of congressional authority in practice: incentives or sanctions against "entities"
  8. "fast tracks": House Rules, Senate Rules are not statutes.

US-UK do. not. do. international. law. m'k?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 12:06:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The great divide ... red States and Blue States.

Not bound by a U.S. Constitution ... separation of powers ... sue the hell out of everybody ..., don't compromise or negotiate ... at last a bully president in the mansion called "White House" ... trample on the rights of anyone near .... guns are the rule of law ... disagreement? ... we'll unite and send in the U.S. Marines ... a matter of time and the numbers until this is recognized by civilised States ... International Law or treaties? ... useful to wipe one's ass in the out house.

At last we seem to agree on something! 😑

by Oui on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 03:09:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We The People pay her a salary ... a "Prosperity Gospel" pastor who considers Trump a god. wtf
by Oui on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 03:22:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Office of Public Liaison
established 1974, EOP est'd. 1939 (US Congress)

Legal, political, and popular opposition: zero

United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom
established 1998, US Congress

Legal, political, and popular opposition: zero

Faith-Based and Community Initiatives (a/k/a White House Office of Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships)
established 2001, EO

Legal, political, and popular opposition: zero
US Constitution, 1st Amd, "establishment" clause

archived executive office administration
Believe it or not, EC description of Commission Secretary General title ...
The Dictator and the Decider
"He's doing our work for us, in a certain respect," said the speaker of the House.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 8th, 2019 at 03:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1 Year Out: A divided nation lurches toward 2020 election (APsplaining)
"It seems like Republicans and Democrats are intractable," said Mark Updegrove, a presidential historian and chairman of the Lyndon Baines Johnson Foundation. "They are both adhering to their own versions of reality, whether they're based in truth or not."

The political divisions today reflect societal and economic schisms between more rural, largely white communities where the economy depends on industries being depleted by outsourcing and automation, and more urban, racially diverse areas dominated by a service economy and where technology booms are increasing wealth.

Many of those divisions existed before Trump, but his presidency has exacerbated them. Trump has panned his political opponents as "human scum," while Democrats view his vision for America's future as anathema to the nation's founding values.

Human scum - that's for Nevertrumpers. More deplorable fun coming.
by das monde on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 09:04:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
International law is what the powerful countries impose on the weak, and what the delusional cling to for protection from the powerful.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 09:24:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
this bromide applies to the Belfast Agreement as well as the International Criminal Court.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Fri Nov 8th, 2019 at 04:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why do you think the UK government could blissfully ignore it until the EU threw its weight behind Ireland?

And has any general from the winning side in a war ever been prosecuted for war crimes?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Nov 8th, 2019 at 07:29:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trade Expansion Act of 1962 purportedly establishing USTR

actual reference
U.S. Code CHAPTER 7-- TRADE EXPANSION PROGRAM, U.S. Code § 1801. Statement of purposes
christ Kennedy admin

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 12:18:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the Brookings article:
"Fast Track Legislative Procedures establish limitations on Congress, ensuring a streamlined legislative process. It requires introduction of the implementing bill in both houses of Congress, referral to relevant committees (at minimum the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees), and automatic discharge after 45 legislative days if the bill has not been reported out of the committees. Fast track permits no amendments to the implementing bill and limits floor debate to 20 hours in each chamber. It requires a timely vote on the implementing bill in the House and Senate no more than 15 legislative days after leaving committee and ensures no conference committee, since both chambers vote on the same implementing bill."

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 6th, 2019 at 04:14:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
discrete "parliamentary" procedures of the US House of Representatives and US Senate
CRS, Ex. 1, fn. 1, always read the footnotes --Jefferson's Manual, and Rules of the House of Representatives
CRS, Ex. 2, Fast Track" Legislative Procedures Governing Congressional Consideration of a Defense Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) Commission Report (2013)
Ex. 3, Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015. 19 USC 4201 note -- Title I, Trade Promotion Authority


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 8th, 2019 at 04:20:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"There is no 'recognition that a hard border threatens the delicate peace'."

Northern Ireland's violent past looms over last-ditch Brexit talks | NBC News |

Analysis: These are distressing times for those of us who were children when "the Troubles" began, who lived through its daily carnage.

In Ireland, we say the past is never over. And it has come back to haunt us as the prospect of a disorderly Brexit looms.

I was 9 years old when the war we euphemistically call "the Troubles" began in Northern Ireland.

"Troubles" doesn't come close to describing it.

I vividly recall the bloodstained images of the attack on civil rights marchers by police in 1968 that set off this terrible explosion of violence. It was a war that not only killed more than 3,700, it injured an estimated 47,000 people in at least 37,000 shootings and over 16,000 bombings.  

Brexit long negotiations is proof there is no solution to the Irish border question. From above map, the Irish border is Sein Fein territory.

How Brexit Put a United Ireland Back on the Map

by Oui on Tue Nov 5th, 2019 at 07:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]