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55-45 has been my best guess for a while as well, and is supported by recent opinion polling - which begs the question as to why the Lib Dems weren't pushing for a second referendum rather than a general election. It's much easier for Boris to get the 35%+ he needs to win a general election, than the 50%+ he needs to win a referendum.

But even now, it begs the question as to why Remain voters can't get their act together and vote for Remain candidates and some are even voting for Boris if the party polling figures are to be believed.

I'm still not convinced this is in the bag for Boris...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Nov 23rd, 2019 at 09:32:04 PM EST
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cos you're voting for a government and there is no real remain alliance. Swinson has admitted he'd rather support a tory party into brexit than a labour party into a referendum. And many of her party's supporters agree.

Labour meanwhile want to bring the country together in the aftermath of any decision to leave or remain and so are determinedly riding the fence. You might think that it is the duty of govermnet to make the hard decisions, but Cameron changed that dynamic on this question and it has to be played out to the conclusion.

As for the election...no I agree that this is not in the bag but the polls are not going to give any indication. the only poll that matters happens on Dec 12th, till then it's all fire and fury signifying nothing

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Nov 23rd, 2019 at 09:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Swinson has admitted [s]he'd rather support a tory party into brexit than a labour party into a referendum. And many of her party's supporters agree.

Supporting Labour into a referendum could be 6 months at most - after which Lib Dems would be free to support whoever they wished, having (probably) achieved their primary goal of Remaining.

Supporting the Tories into Brexit is forever. I hope they are not deluding themselves that that decision is reversible...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Nov 23rd, 2019 at 10:47:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
no, they just hate Labour that much.

This is why a Remain alliance is imposssible, Remain is just a stance, rather like their univesity tuition fees promise of 9 years ago, it is just a position to be traded away for power.

The LibDems have no credibility as a party of the centre, let alone as one of the left. They're a moderate right wing party and will always ally with the right.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 24th, 2019 at 10:09:24 AM EST
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