Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
May wants a leave document that is supported by the conservative party, one that holds its internal coalition together. That is the circle which cannot be squared.

Because she cannot create a majority in the Commons with any deal which meets her own red lines and that of the ERG. Let alone that of the DUP. In this process the other opposition parties are helpless by-standers.

It's not that May and Corbyn can't work together, but May knows that any deal she could get with Corbyn would involve compromises the ERG could never accept. If brexit were to be done on such terms, the Tory party would split. Which is May's deepest red line. Brexit was conceived to stop the Tory party splitting and May will do nothing to hurt her tribe. Regardless of the damage to the country.

So, she is left with holding Parliament to ransom : Agree my deal or have no deal.

Although, it's worse than that,


keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Feb 19th, 2019 at 09:29:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And for some reason the EU doesn't share her highest red line that the Tory Party must be held together - even if it were possible to conceive of a document which could do this. From an EU perspective, why would you put your head in that bunfight, when the only possible outcome is mutually assured destruction?

But perhaps Theresa May is playing a long game. She knows the Tory/Labour duopoly cannot survive this disaster and is determined that it won't be the Tories that will bite the dust. If she can hold her coalition together longer than Corbyn can his, she might even win.

What happens to the UK in the interim is almost irrelevant.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Feb 19th, 2019 at 05:31:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just before the US Civil War, both sides of the duopoly split.  The split was an ideological one that happened to be sectional as well and so set the table for the war.  150 years later, we're still sorting it out.  And then in 1968 it nearly happened again.  The Republicans temporarily stepped back from the abyss.  Aghast by the 1964 Goldwater campaign that was little more than a front for John Birch Society hate-blather, cooler heads took control back and buried Reagan that time.  The Democrats, though, split, with George Wallace taking the Dixiecrat segregationists off, leaving the northern urban base in the party, which was not enough to beat Nixon.  By 1972 Wallace was no longer a factor, Lee Atwater's Southern Strategy had turned the Dixiecrats into Republicans, and Nixon thrashed the "wimpy pinko" McGovern.  Insert Watergate, let simmer, and we have the Bicentennial Election of 1976.  On the Republican side, Ford was the incumbent president so he got the nomination, but it was apparent that Reagan and the zombie armies of the Right were the future.  On the Democratic side, the powers went, "See, we went too far to the left, that's why we lost in '68 and '72," and dumped Kennedy for Carter.  Carter won, but neither he nor the party was ready for prime time and did not have the skills to govern effectively (rather the same position Labour would be in if Corbyn suddenly found himself at No. 10).  Results: Reagan takes it in 1980; the Republican Party starts goose-stepping down the Right Road until it now is little more than Fascism Lite; and the Democrats, now even more afraid of anything that can even remotely be considered progressive, is taken over by the DLC and transforms into a club of corporate whores whose only interest is enabling the fever dreams of every neolib and neocon.  Clinton and Gore ram through NAFTA and similar trade deals, killing blue collar jobs in the US once and for all; Gingrich sucks up scads of disaffected "deplorables" in 1994, feeds them a steady diet on anti-international/anti-immigrant rhetoric, and uses them to destroy the last traces of Republican support for any foreign policy other than military intervention; and voila, here we are.

The UK duopoly is on the verge of fracturing; neither May nor Corbyn has the tools to stop it.  If (when) it happens, it will be profoundly destabilizing (worse than the US because the UK is far more dependent on parties to make the system work); it will take years to sort out, and perhaps not in our lifetimes; and there will be a significant, dangerous shift to the right.

by rifek on Wed Mar 6th, 2019 at 06:08:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

Après May

by Frank Schnittger - Mar 22
19 comments

The gloves are off

by Frank Schnittger - Mar 20
32 comments

Brexit Fun: The John Bercow Show

by Oui - Mar 18
19 comments

Healing Earth (Through the Waters)

by gmoke - Mar 19
2 comments

People playing games

by Frank Schnittger - Mar 15
50 comments

No justice for Bloody Sunday

by IdiotSavant - Mar 14
2 comments

Occasional Series