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I'm not sure there is anything the EU can do, post a no deal Brexit, which will be perceived as "right" by the UK, and after a while the EU will simply cease to care - save for an abiding pity and sympathy for the circumstance that Ireland finds itself in.

The UK press and establish will bloviate as they wish and most in the EU will cease to pay attention or care. The two sides will drift apart, and any number of flash points will accentuate the process.

I do not rule out a trade war and military incidents around Gibraltar. Trump will cast his glowering gaze and dirty fingerprints over all. If BoJo becomes PM the EU will even lose the will to talk.

Everyone will simply hunker down and await the formation of a sane government in Westminster, and they could be waiting a long time. Scotland could well vote for independence, and N. Ireland for unity, but it will not be an easy transition.

If the EU were to thrive while the UK stagnates - or worse spirals into chaos - the stupidity of Brexit will become apparent to all, and the remedy obvious; But my fear is that the EU, too, will stagnate and ossify. There will be very few silver linings to encroaching storm clouds on offer.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Feb 19th, 2019 at 04:23:18 PM EST
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