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Theresa May faces ministerial revolt over no-deal Brexit
Theresa May is facing the most serious cabinet revolt of her premiership next week, with as many as 25 members of the government ready to vote for a Brexit delay unless she rules out "no deal" - in a move that will challenge her to sack them.

Rebel Conservatives believe there are now enough MPs across the House of Commons to pass an amendment that would require May to extend article 50 rather than allow the UK to leave without a deal.

At least four cabinet ministers, almost a dozen junior ministers and many others on the government payroll are understood to be prepared to back the motion proposed by the Tory MP Sir Oliver Letwin and Labour's Yvette Cooper, due to be debated on Wednesday. A senior source close to those plotting the rebellion said there was no way the members of the government would resign voluntarily and May would have to sack them.


Movement?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Feb 21st, 2019 at 09:31:57 PM EST
lateral move or lateral promotion within a corporation, eg. HOC

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Feb 21st, 2019 at 09:47:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The only deal the UK is going to get is the one Parliament rejected 432 to 202.  

It doesn't fucking matter what the Cabinet does or doesn't do.  

The only deal the UK is going to get is the one Parliament rejected 432 to 202.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 21st, 2019 at 11:02:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I really don't understand why this is so hard to grasp.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Feb 21st, 2019 at 11:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"belief" is antibiotic-resistant.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Feb 21st, 2019 at 11:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Substantively yes, but the EU is prepared to offer "assurances" around the meaning of the text of that deal to provide some face saving cover to MPs who previously voted against it. Whether that is sufficient to sway enough of them is dubious to say the least...

The very fact that it is now only a few paragraphs dealing with the Irish backstop - out of a complex 600 page agreement - that are now in contention is progress in itself.

Most MPs have probably not read the text in full in any case. Some needed a reason to oppose it and so latched onto the backstop to vent their outrage. Now some are looking for a way to get off that hook.

None thought the EU would actually stand by Ireland on this issue - hence their outrage. It wasn't supposed to be like this. Most cling to the belief that the EU always compromises at the last minute and still expect it to fold sooner or later.

But it has been the ERG/DUP which have been the driving force behind all of this, and it is this the new Independent Group is trying to change.

It looks like a delay is the only plan a majority of the house of Commons can get behind, but will the EU27 agree to this in the absence of a plan? For a couple of months perhaps in the hope it might precipitate a general election or allow the fizz of the Brexit campaign leave the body politic in the UK.

This one could yet run and run. My dark suspicion has always been that in the end someone on the EU Council will lose patience and withhold consent for a further extension of A.50 effectively kicking the UK out.

CUE outrage in the UK: Threats to withdraw the A.50 notification before B-day. Threats to pursue guerrilla war against the EU from within. Messier and messier. Eventually some deal will probably be done. We are just in the reducing expectations phase...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 22nd, 2019 at 12:45:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"We are just in the reducing expectations phase..." That has a long way to go in a short time.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Feb 22nd, 2019 at 02:22:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The very fact that it is now only a few paragraphs dealing with the Irish backstop - out of a complex 600 page agreement - that are now in contention is progress in itself.

This is not the case: those paragraphs are just a convenient excuse for the nutters to justify their opposition to the deal as a whole, largely because their opposition to the whole idea and wish for a no deal, no constraints exit sounds nuts to anyone faintly normal.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Feb 22nd, 2019 at 10:35:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, and for that reason the no dealers will continue to find fault with whatever solution is dreamed up in relation to the backstop impasse. But discussion of all other aspects of the deal has effectively ended and so those who do want a deal will now have to swallow the 600 pages lock, stock, and barrel bar whatever emollient phrases are dreamed up around the backstop.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 22nd, 2019 at 11:18:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It won't actually change anything if they force May to "rule out no deal".

Despite the superficial appeal of the double negative, it's empty rhetoric insofar as there is no deal currently on offer which commands a parliamentary majority.

Unless the subtext of "rule out no deal" is actually "bloody well negotiate a deal with Corbyn which can command a Commons majority, and go to Brussels with that".

I could live with that. Perhaps Corbyn could. But May would have to resign...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Feb 22nd, 2019 at 10:06:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the short term the sub text of ruling out no deal is simply delay in the hope of something better turning up later. In the longer term that has to include a deal with Corbyn unless the Independent group grow so large and coherent that they can provide a majority for May's deal that excludes ERG hard core and DUP support - a very unlikely prospect, I would have thought.

The only other option is for the Independent group to precipitate a general election which might well produce a not v. different outcome - unless Corbyn embraces a second referendum as part of his election manifesto.  Given that the Independent group is as anti-Corbyn as anyone they will find it very difficult to support him even in that circumstance.

Given the unlikelihood of almost ANY independents being re-elected in a very polarized FPTP election, they will probably avoid the election option like the plague. The bottom line is that procrastination is their only option and Corbyn holds the key to any resolution.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Feb 22nd, 2019 at 11:34:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The only other option is for the Independent group to precipitate a general election ......

I would have thought a GE is the last thing many of the defectors would want. Some (many?) are likely to lose their seats; in the two party, FPTP system, the electorate vote for parties, not individuals, however effective they have been in the past as MPs, and however eloquent and principaled their stance.

The party leaders have already challenged the defectors to put their decision to "a people's vote" by resigning their seat and forcing a by-election. Noone has accepted this.

BBC Vox-Pop interviews in Conservative constituencies and press comment, even in more left-wing press, suggest that Allen, Soubry and Wollaston are not being lauded for their decision to challenge the ERG from outside the party.

Unless the Tory party does split completely under the default "no-deal", the "three amigas" stance may be irrelevant within two weeks.

by oldremainmer48 on Fri Feb 22nd, 2019 at 12:22:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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