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You will note I have made no predictions beyond predicting a wide margin of victory for Remain IF a second referendum is held. Logically, rationally, a delay in Brexit can only lead to one outcome - a rescinding of the A.50 notification following a second referendum. But very little in this process has been rational to date, beyond the HOC gradually having to come to terms with realities it would rather have ignored.

The scope for this process to be mismanaged or sabotaged in some way is still high. For one thing, anything Corbyn proposes is likely to be opposed my most Tories almost all of the time. It is still unclear whether any motion to hold a second referendum will pass the HOC without May's government's support. My guess is that that may not be forthcoming until late June as the UK faces the prospect of the EU Council not renewing an initial 3 month extension.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Feb 27th, 2019 at 07:01:13 PM EST
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