Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
I'll play.

2. I think Remain would win, mainly because May's deal is considered as such a failure. This time Brexit would be the option that has to defend the specifics, while Remain could court votes from everyone who has a grudge against this specific deal.

Actually, I think Remain would win in a there way instant runoff referendum too. May's deal would get least votes and split between no deal Brexit and Remain, and Remain would win.

Either way, there would be a large pool of Brexit-was-betrayed voters up for grabs in the next election. Probably smaller in the three way runoff referendum, but still sizeable. To be picked up by UKIP or more extreme nationalists, if May is viewed as the main betrayer.

by fjallstrom on Fri Mar 1st, 2019 at 04:21:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Even if a second referendum was won by Remain by 2:1, there will be a huge cohort of people who believe that Brexit was betrayed and that the 40% or so who didn't vote all share their anti-Brexit beliefs.  Democracy is only democracy if it supports your beliefs...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 1st, 2019 at 06:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The huge cohort will consist of some very confused pensioners and a small core of die-hard racists.

They'll always be there, and there's no particular reason to worry about them. They're certainly not going to take any kind of action.

The one absolutely consistent thing about Brexit has been the total lack of practical support for pro-Brexit protests and events. A few thousand people turn up to the events with the biggest publicity, but generally either pro-Brexiters simply aren't interested in practical action, or there are far fewer of them than we've been led to believe.

Farage has announced a pro-Brexit march from the north of the UK to London. Not only is the scheduling unappealing - it's twenty miles a day, for a couple of weeks - but Leave are also trying to sell £50 participation packs.

I suspect numbers will not be large.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Mar 1st, 2019 at 09:33:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

Après May

by Frank Schnittger - Mar 22
33 comments

The gloves are off

by Frank Schnittger - Mar 20
32 comments

Brexit Fun: The John Bercow Show

by Oui - Mar 18
19 comments

Healing Earth (Through the Waters)

by gmoke - Mar 19
2 comments

People playing games

by Frank Schnittger - Mar 15
50 comments

No justice for Bloody Sunday

by IdiotSavant - Mar 14
2 comments

Occasional Series