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I'll play.

2. I think Remain would win, mainly because May's deal is considered as such a failure. This time Brexit would be the option that has to defend the specifics, while Remain could court votes from everyone who has a grudge against this specific deal.

Actually, I think Remain would win in a there way instant runoff referendum too. May's deal would get least votes and split between no deal Brexit and Remain, and Remain would win.

Either way, there would be a large pool of Brexit-was-betrayed voters up for grabs in the next election. Probably smaller in the three way runoff referendum, but still sizeable. To be picked up by UKIP or more extreme nationalists, if May is viewed as the main betrayer.

by fjallstrom on Fri Mar 1st, 2019 at 04:21:41 PM EST
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