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And so we have the obligatory Choreography whereby the EU makes a last minute concession thereby fulfilling Brexiteer mythology and promises to their own supporters.  Whether there is anything of substance in the concession is almost irrelevant - the EU has been made to bend the knee to cool Britannia.

Given any other time, the EU "concession" would immediately have been dismissed as meaningless and worthless, but now it fulfils the valuable function of giving those who want it, an opportunity to get off their high horses and vote for May's deal. Undoubtedly, many more may now do so, although most would be hard pressed to explain what has suddenly made her deal acceptable.

The Irish backstop has also fulfilled another valuable function. There are a million and one reasons why many don't like May's deal, it falls far short of the benefits of full membership and still leaves the UK scrabbling around for some kind of secure advantageous trading relationship in the future. But by focussing their ire on the Irish backstop, Brexiteers also made a one issue solution to their concerns possible.

For the EU, the last minute concession fulfils a tradition of kicking difficult decisions into the long grass, into a hypothetical future which may or may not come to pass. Certainly, by that stage the situation will be very different: The UK will be a third country desperately seeking to cling onto its current membership privileges. Also, the current DUP/Conservative government may no longer be in power and the UK ask might have changed. Who cares what the DUP think if they no longer hold the balance of power?

Overall I still expect this deal to be defeated in the House of Commons, albeit by a much closer margin. MP's will be under no illusion that this is the EU's final offer. It's this deal, no deal, or no Brexit. Ironically it might ultimately be defeated by a few Remainers who see the chances of no Brexit improving by the day. But the EU has done its work. These negotiations are over.

Until the parameters change and they start again...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 12th, 2019 at 01:14:53 PM EST
You didn't read the EU documents, did you.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Mar 12th, 2019 at 01:31:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No. Which is why I didn't write a diary on the topic. But also, I expect the agreements to be voted down by the House of Commons, so they will end up being so much toilet paper by the end of today or tomorrow.

What matters in politics are the optics. I wrote my comment above before I had seen the Attorney General's advice to the effect that the latest deal adds no more legal certainty that the UK will not be "trapped" in a relationship it currently doesn't want - but will probably beg for later.

So my earlier expectation that the deal would be defeated but that the vote could be quite close is now modified to an expectation of quite a wide margin of defeat - even if much closer than before.

Rest assured, that if the deal is accepted I will read the documents before pronouncing on them in diary form. I do not expect to have to do so.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 12th, 2019 at 03:44:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I should have gone to sleep after midnight ... I saw the first headlines appear on the news channels satellite reception: "Breakthrough".

Briefly this morning I saw the headlines in The Guardian and on DW ... also the statement by Juncker. So it was a PR camouflage and the pressure cooker tactic of Mrs. May. This will fail. Two years of illusion and misinterpretation of UK powers and the entity confronted, going the by name of the EU.



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Tue Mar 12th, 2019 at 02:00:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The first prerequisite for intelligent discussion of "legally binding" alterations to the Withdrawal Agreement is reading the agreed instruments in their entirety.

links from Junker's tweet (above) to 11 March 2019 documents, transmitted.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Mar 12th, 2019 at 03:07:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I trust UK MPs will read them before voting them down. All other discussion is moot.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 12th, 2019 at 03:46:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not all other discussion is moot, granted the conclusion to this one was foregone, like, 60 years ago.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Mar 12th, 2019 at 04:05:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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