Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
There are those (can't find for the moment) who are touting an easy Trump win on the grounds that the economy is strong.

Concerns about the health of the world economy heightened last week after remarks by the US Federal Reserve indicated that it would not raise interest rates this year. The comments confirmed to analysts that the Fed has backflipped on its hawkish policy of the past year when it hiked rates four times and is now more pessimistic about the outlook for the US economy.

Adding to the fears of a more widespread global downturn, manufacturing output data from Germany on Friday showed a contraction for the third straight month.

In response, US 10-year treasury yields slipped below the three-month rate for the first time since 2007 as nervous investors ploughed their money into the safe haven of bonds rather than riskier assets such as shares.

This so-called inversion of the of the bond yield curve - where long-term rates fall below short-term - has predicted every recession for the past 60 years. It is a function of bond markets that the return, or yield, falls when the price of the bond rises.

Nothing weakens like a strong economy.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 09:39:31 AM EST
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in a shallow pool with three or more large, inflatable beach balls

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Mar 25th, 2019 at 05:41:26 PM EST
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