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Far too little and far too late. Best hope is that Corbyn has one brief conference and then announces that no acceptable compromise is on offer. If May does not open with a reasonable compromise, why legitimate even more delay?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 12:33:52 AM EST
It's called a Tory whitewash or simply the blame-game. Either Corbyn's Labour or preferably the ugly bureaucrats in Brussels. Most likely in polls the EU will be holding the card to success of an "orderly" Brexit. No second referendum and to avoid a snap general election at all cost. Protecting the party - May's self interest. In the digital age of social media it will be considered leadership.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 02:47:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, we're talking blame games here, with May desperately trying to spread a little in Corbyn's direction as otherwise the responsibility is all hers. It's like a game of musical chairs where everyone is trying not to be the one holding the Brexit baby when the music stops - as it shortly will.

The EU have to extract a price for another extension, and holding EP elections will be their minimum offer. Can you see the UK refusing an extension for fear of having to hold elections?

Possibly May might, because the Tories could be down to under 20% in an EP election right now, perhaps outvoted by UKIP and the Lib Dems, and certainly by Labour.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 09:49:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EP elections aren't a price, they're a legal requirement of continuing membership. The EU don't especially want the UK holding them, they just haven't been able to find a way around it that they believe will hold up under the inevitable court challenges.

You've spent too long reading UK takes on the relationship here. I don't think the EU has tried to extract a price for anything, they've been trying to accommodate the UK crazies as best as they can within the EU legal order despite the utter foolishness of UK commentators.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 10:25:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes but what the UK have been trying to do is to finesse the legal situation by requesting an extension only until May 22nd. as the elections have to be held from May 23rd. onwards.

But this rather ignores the point that the elections have to be organised from April 12th. as candidates need time to be nominated and run their campaigns. So what the UK is effectively saying is that they guarantee to be gone by May 22nd. to avoid a legal problem with the election.

But this rather ignores the fact that these things never run to plan and that more time is likely to be required to negotiate, agree, and ratify a deal. So the UK is trying to pre-empt and pre-judge the outcome of the negotiations by saying they will be finished by May 22nd. one way or the other.

But if this all goes pearshaped, the UK will have "de facto" left the EU even if no "de jure" deal has been agreed - throwing the whole process into a legal mess and discrediting the EU - which is, above all, predicated on a legal order. The Brexiteers would love that - throwing some sand in the EU's eyes.

So why should the EU buy into this? EU citizens have a right to stand in and vote in EP elections and this involves doing stuff from April 12th. onwards. So my argument is that any extension beyond April 12th. must include participation in EP elections.

Call this the "price" of an extension, or call it whatever you like, the outcome and consequence is the same. The EU desires an "orderly" Brexit, and this does not include disrupting the EP elections and interfering in the rights of EU citizens while they are still EU citizens.

More magical thinking on the part of the UK, I agree.

Interestingly, Corbyn has said he has no strong view on this one way or the other. He doesn't want to attract Brexiteer ire by insisting on elections (which BoJo says will cost £109 Million) but will be quite happy to comply if the EU insists on them.

Negotiations are also about putting facts on the ground. Not holding the elections implies Remaining is simply not an option. Holding the elections forces a delay and means Remain is still very much a live possibility.

The elections would also likely result in a complete humiliation for the Tory party. My guess is they would poll under 20%.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 10:50:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know about that. The legal controversy created by indulging UK intransigence --with recurring "extensions" offers-- has been understated by Council PR. It is not mitigated by further deadline extension; it exacerbates controversy. Council decision to facilitate UK participation up to 22 May, 2019 (by expedient pretext) jeopardizes its responsibility for assuring a reliable EU electoral system. Permitting 24 hours notice of UK admission, or not, to the EP as contingent member is politically counterproductive to decisions already taken.
As regards the UK, given that the time frame for conclusion of a withdrawal agreement is due to end on 29 March 2019, it will no longer be a member of the EU at the time of the elections on 23-26 May 2019, unless the European Council, in agreement with the UK, unanimously decides to extend that period (Article 50(3) TEU). The UK's 73 seats will cease to exist on the date of its departure, and have already partly been redistributed among other Member States by European Council Decision (EU) 2018/937 of 28 June 2018 for the period following the 2019 European elections (1.3.3).
Art.3, ¶1-2 reduces total number of seats to 705. This electoral control, depends not only on UK legal withdrawal before the beginning of this 2019-24 session, it anticipates notice by Council to EU27 of effective conclusion to A.50 action "sufficiently far in advance " to adjust and complete electoral composition before 2024-2029 session [Art.4; European Council Decision of 28 June 2013, Art. 4]. An inconclusive A.50 action, regardless of MEP election in UK, defeats that purpose.

Failing to enforce a conclusion most certainly invites reactionary correctives by EU state, individuals (not UK), and ECJ.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 03:57:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But if this all goes pearshaped, the UK will have "de facto" left the EU even if no "de jure" deal has been agreed - throwing the whole process into a legal mess and discrediting the EU - which is, above all, predicated on a legal order. The Brexiteers would love that - throwing some sand in the EU's eyes.

if this all goes pearshaped, then it will be hard brexit on May 23, and it will be the UK's fault. I can't see why this would reflect badly on the EU.

<cling> The penny drops... I recently decided that I would be visiting Glasgow in the last week of May, to see my daughter's graduation exhibition. I'd better make sure to take cancellation insurance on the tickets.

(Oddly enough my first visit to Glasgow was in the weeks preceding the referendum... Full circle. Subliminal pull of ancestral ties.)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 4th, 2019 at 06:42:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The possibility of unilateral Brexit revocation makes it imperative that the UK prepare to hold EU elections if they remain a member past April 12 (for domestic logistical reasons) and actually hold them if they remain a member past May 22.

The EU is willing to go out of its way to avoid a no-deal Brexit but they won't allow the UK political crisis to infect their institutions. Unfortunately I can't find the quote, but a UK paper quoted an EU diplomat to that effect.

Thinking of this as the EU exacting a price for a concession is the Brexiter confrontational frame. The EU has negotiated like an unfeeling technocratic machine.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 10:50:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I disagree. An unfeeling technocratic machine focused on being as nice as it can be to the UK. Can you imagine a hostile EU here? (Is it even possible for the EU to be hostile here? Does the machine prevent it?)
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 03:00:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does it take a hostile EU? Or does it only take one EU country with internal political arguments of it own that cause it to vote against whatever mish-mash May and Corbyn might come up with.
by asdf on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 04:06:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Let history record that the Labour Party could have stopped..."

T.May and J.Corbyn agree that emending the "Political Declaration" introduced to the WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT  could switch a dozen more MPS (any combination), from nay to aye, to support negotiation of some kind of customs union ...

if draft parameters of such EU or EEA customs union (Clarke's hypothetical) are acceptable ...

with or without HoC majority ratification of the WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT.

There's the risk ultimately: "swing" voters could accept custom union and dismiss the WA.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 05:33:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU says it would not open [trade] talks with UK after no-deal Brexit until it agrees to [sign up to the main elements of the withdrawal agreement anyway]
on cross-party "Political Declaration"
"Whatever happens the UK will have to respond to the three main questions of the separation: one, citizens' rights, they must be respected and protected. Two, the UK will have to continue to honour its financial commitments taken as a member state. And three, a solution will have to be found for the island of Ireland, preserving peace and the single market.
equivocation
[Junker] also said member states should approve her request for a short extension until 22 May, but only "if the United Kingdom is in a position [?] to approve the withdrawal agreement with a sustainable majority" before a planned summit next week.
stupidly elects 22 May BREXIT "request"
"If it has not done so by then [12 April], no further short extension will be possible. After 12 April, we risk jeopardising the European parliament elections and so threaten the functioning of the European Union."


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 10:11:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obvious really, but this is a welcome clarification.

The free-lunch Brexiters need to have their noses rubbed in this stuff.

The only alternative is to go full pirate, like Port Royal or Algiers [aka "WTO rules"]

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 4th, 2019 at 06:47:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Barbados, Bahamas, Bermuda, Jamaica, ..., VANUATU!!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Apr 4th, 2019 at 01:43:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There were no WTO rules in Port Royal, shipmate. And back then was when we had Henry Morgan as Governor of Jamaica (snigger) and we was making out like bandits.

That was when we got the Empire going!

(Can't take any more Brexshit. Am morphing full swivel-eye).

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Apr 4th, 2019 at 04:13:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you mean, don't you think that when EU forces poor UK to elect well enumerated representatives to participate in the EUs decision making process, it does so only for the evulzs?
by fjallstrom on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 03:12:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Vote for the Greatest Evil

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Thu Apr 4th, 2019 at 03:34:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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