Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
It's generally believed that this offer is an attempt to solidify breiteer suspicions that the failures of brexit are all Corbyn's fault, or at least to provide some meat for the tabloids to a bone of blame for the tabloids to chew over.

However, the EU have emphasised that, at this stage, there are only 3 outcomes to discuss; No deal, May's deal or No brexit. Any new compromise concocted by Corbyn and May together will not be permitted without the UK's participation in the EU elections.

So, all that's gonna happen is that May will tell Corbyn that, if he wishes to honour the result of the referendum (which he has continually insisted that he does), then it's her deal or no deal. Which means she's basically gonna tell him he MUST push her deal through.

I'm not sure he's gonna buy those beans, however magic they're supposed to be.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 2nd, 2019 at 08:57:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU won't agree to re-opening the Withdrawal agreement, but the political declaration on the future relationship is fair game. So a re-write to include membership of A customs union, protection of workers rights etc. is entirely possible and even doable in a few weeks.

The problem is that this process, combined with ratification and enactment processes on all sides is unlikely to be completed by May 22nd. So the UK could be in breach of its Treaty obligations to hold elections for quite some time, and a de facto Brexit would occur even before a new deal had been formally agreed and ratified.

The EU can't afford to allow a de facto Brexit, so I doubt the EU would allow that to happen and would insist on the UK holding the EP elections - enraging Brexiteers and giving some hope to campaigners for a second confirmatory public vote who could channel their energies into the election campaign.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Apr 2nd, 2019 at 09:29:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU has indicated the political declaration could be rewritten over a weekend, given a clear indication of what would likely pass the Commons.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 02:32:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So what May can offer is influence over the political declaration in return for helping the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament? And possibly elections, if she even has that much power over the Tories (if she resigns, the Tories and DUP can appoint someone else, and if she calls for new elections she needs a two thirds majority).

I don't really see why Corbyn would accept that offer of shared blame for her impopular Withdrawal Agreement. Unless he buys the whole "must save Tories from themselves"-thing.

by fjallstrom on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 03:50:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd say that in order to get Labour support she'll pretty much have to let Corbyn write the political agreement.
After all, she got to negotiate the withdrawal agreement. Fair's fair...

And Labour is the only game in town, if she wants to get Brexit over the line, and nlways was. She's proved that by trying everything else.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 04:08:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When only 15 Tories voted for a second referendum, how many would support a deal containing both Corbyn's red lines and a proposal for a second referendum? And could this be passed before the EU Council meeting?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 08:36:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The only thing that can come out of the meeting that would have majority support in parliament is Corbyn slipping her poisoned jam. Mold optional.
by generic on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 08:56:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's indeed looking that even if May and Corbyn can reach an agreement the Commons would vote it down too.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Apr 4th, 2019 at 08:11:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any new compromise concocted by Corbyn and May together will not be permitted without the UK's participation in the EU elections.
Unless the compromise involves swift ratification of May's deal (possibly without the political declaration on the future relationship).

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 02:30:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well...

There's no short extension on offer

Speaking to the European parliament, Juncker instead set an "ultimate deadline" of 12 April for the Commons to approve the withdrawal agreement.

So if they get the deal over the line with a Con/Lab whipped vote (not a foregone conclusion) then it's all hunky-dory, the EU will let the UK hand its "political declaration" homework in after the holidays, I reckon.

(But before any referendum which may be part of the deal...)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 04:17:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Calling the Withdrawal Agreement, negotiated by the Barnier team on the EUI side and whomever was the flavor of the month on the UK side, as "May's deal" (it's not), is granting the hard Brexieers a major victory in allowing them to bend the narrative in their favor: this was the best way to get the deal soundly rejected; after all, everybody hates the woman.
by Bernard on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 06:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes and "everyone" hates "her" deal, because it exposes the UK's diminished bargaining power relative to the EU. The Brexiteers refer to it dismissively as May's deal as an argument in favour of their preferred no deal option. Remainers refer to it dismissively as May's deal as clearly inferior to the status quo. Remainers want it to be the alternate option to Remain in a binary referendum choice. Brexiteers are trying to delegitimize it entirely so that the default no deal Brexit comes to pass - or (worst case) becomes the alternate option to Remain in a binary choice referendum. (Apparently the poor people of the UK cannot be trusted to answer a multiple choice question in a referendum...)

We all know the deal was 95% drafted by Barnier's team (and this is reflected in the unanimous support it has received on the EU side). But to have any chance of getting it ratified, May had to take ownership of the deal - something she didn't do initially when she tried to resile from the Irish backstop before the ink was even dry on her agreement. Now, at least, she and almost everyone else have taken ownership of the Withdrawal Agreement. All the fuss is about the political declaration, which isn't even binding on either side...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 3rd, 2019 at 08:55:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

Duplicity

by Frank Schnittger - Oct 20
55 comments

So what went wrong?

by Frank Schnittger - Oct 22
14 comments

Ulster says NO!

by Frank Schnittger - Oct 17
44 comments

Trump's Presidency Transfixed

by ARGeezer - Oct 17
20 comments

Spain is not a democracy

by IdiotSavant - Oct 14
10 comments

Occasional Series