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Not a single partner in EU or UK wants the Brits to participate in the EU elections of May 23. The election would be a farce and cause immeasureable damage to the EU project. I see a decision taken this month. :)
You are probably more in touch with public/political opinion in various EU countries outside Ireland than I am, but I fail to see why UK participation would be an existential concern for other countries.
Yes, there would be the complication of 14 countries not knowing exactly how many seats are on offer, and constituency boundaries even being effected in Ireland. A nuisance, at best.
But the EP elections are essentially 28 distinct elections in 28 member states with minimal interdependencies and impact on each other.
Analysts (like me), will look for pan European trends, but it seems unlikely that (say) Vox or AfD or Le Pen will do better or worse because the UK are also holding an election.
If anything, the pathetic sight of the UK still clinging on 3 years after the referendum will be a cautionary tale for voters considering voting for extreme Eurosceptic or nationalist parties elsewhere.
Brexit has highlighted the benefits and warned of the difficulties caused by taking the advantages of the EU for granted, while thinking you can put narrow self-interests first.
Vox may campaign on putting Spain first and making Spain Great Again, but voters may note that is also what the Catalan parties want - for Catalonia.
So overall I see no reason why European Leaders, coming mostly from mainstream centre right and centre left parties, will be too concerned about UK participation.
They may make noises about how pathetic it has all been, but perhaps are pleased that it has also been an opportunity for European leaders and institutions to show cohesion and unity of purpose, not to mention a minimal level of competence by way of comparison.
What else has there been for Europhiles to brag about recently?
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