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Having a chastened UK back in the fold wouldn't be so bad, and would solve a lot of the problems Brexit would create. The whole Brexit process has road tested the A.50 process and provided an opportunity for the EU to show relative cohesion and competence. Next time some member wants to throw a tantrum, they can be shown the A.50 door.

In the meantime one can only hope that the Tories will be put out of their misery and replaced by a moderately sane and competent party - perhaps forever. The Lib Dems to replace the Tories in the Westminster duopoly? Once you are out of the duopoly, it can be very hard to get back in. Ask the Liberals. The UK could even cease to be a public school dominated class society, or maybe that is taking the possibilities for reform too far...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 04:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The LibDems won't replace the Tories. They're too closely associated with the coalition.

Reality is the Tories still have a lot of support in the UK. Enough voters are some combination of misinformed, stupid, tribal, or just plain nasty to keep the Tories within five percent of Labour.

Anyway - latest news is the EU is going to say "Non" to May's request for more time without an explicit plan. Which presumably means either a GE or a People's Vote.

And the negotiations with Corbyn more or less amounted to "I want you to support my Withdrawal Agreement, and beyond that I have no interest in anything you say here."

So currently, unless Parliament gets its act together next week and forces a GE or a PV - or the EU relents at the last minute - it's going to be No Deal on the 12th.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 05:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll see. Political memories are short and the Brits are masters of re-inventing themselves. Brexit is becoming such a huge political, social, and emotional embarrassment, many conservative Brits may find it hard to forgive the party that caused it, for the next election at least, and possibly for a generation.. (Quite apart from the business community told to FO by Boris). The single seat FPTP system is so unfair on the party which comes third...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 05:20:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most conservative Brits want No Deal.

I believe you're underestimating how insanely far the far-right has moved. Something like 70% of Tory supporters and a solid core of Tory MPs are gung-ho for body bags, food shortages, rioting, and death.

This is why we have a problem. If a tiny lunatic fringe wanted No Deal, it would be off the table.

But it's not a tiny lunatic fringe. It's quite a large lunatic fringe - around 30% of all voters, and by far the most active element in the Tory grass roots.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 06:08:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why I expect UKIP and Farage's new Brexit party to do well, but they will mainly be taking votes from May's Conservative party chained to her hugely unpopular deal. Perhaps it is UKIP or Farage's party who will take over from the Conservatives in the duopoly but my own guess is they are too weak and divided. It's all very well to vote for such parties as a protest vote in an EP election, but many of those votes would either not materialise or be wasted in a single-seat FPTP general election. Either way, I think there is huge instability in the UK political system at the moment, and quite a few previously unthinkable outcomes may become possible.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 06:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
TBG:"But it's not a tiny lunatic fringe. It's quite a large lunatic fringe - around 30% of all voters, and by far the most active element in the Tory grass roots."

Interestingly, that is about the size of Trump's base in the USA. Anglo-Saxon Disease. Same root, toxic ethnic nostalgia. The only sane way forward is to marginalize these folks. But can we do it?

The most dangerous time for the adherents to such madness is when their representatives gain power. In both countries the adherents see glorious victory. Fortunately, most of the rest see disaster.

May those who orchestrate and support such madness go down with their puppets.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 01:14:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the size of the Altemeyer "Authoritarians" more or less.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 12:29:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No matter what else happens, count on the LibDems to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
by rifek on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 10:53:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe we are (all of the west, including Europe and US) getting to the point where a new political division is looming. When both parties are split over something as fundamental as EU membership (or tariffs, in the US), maybe the platform planks that differentiate today's conservative and labour parties--or US republican and democratic parties--will be replaced with a different issue.

We might end up with "Free Trade" (or "globalist") and "Mercantilist" (or "Isolationist") parties, maybe.

by asdf on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 11:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Happened in the US before the Civil War.  Every significant institution in the country, including both parties, split over slavery.  150 years later, we still haven't patched over it all.  I doubt we shall.  Personally, I believe there will be more blood.
by rifek on Sat Apr 13th, 2019 at 08:28:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Free Trade" (or "globalist") and "Mercantilist" (or "Isolationist") parties

This analogy for antagonism is incongruent.

All political parties organized in the USA ("assembled"  in confederation or federation of governments) advocate free trade, unimpeded or unrestrained commerce anywhere. Scope of market and commodity type traded is fundamentally irrelevant to agreement among members. This is the similarity in party polemic and business activities (liberalism).

"Mercantilism," for example, expresses one class of commercial enterprise. Briefly, this type of economic incorporation propounds precepts of private property rights and usufruct, ironically, taken together to control resource supply (anywhere) and means of production (anywhere) from which an enterprise's owner(s) realize profit ("value") by maximum exchange rate and volume.

"Capitalism" and "mercantalism" are expressions of one and the same ideology of commerce, embellished by technique over time; a neologism.

Dominant political parties in the USA differ only in advocacy of laws governing market participants anywhere: either centralized control (conservative liberal) or decentralized control (liberal liberal).

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Apr 15th, 2019 at 03:50:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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