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The EP elections would be a godsend for parties like the The Independent Group and Farage's new Brexit party because the list system means they actually have the chance of winning some seats and establishing their credentials as a serious party. The bipolar FPTP single seat constituency system used in general elections would confine them to the role of spoilers picking up some protest votes.

I suspect the Tories would do disastrously, and Labour not much better so the EP elections could upset the whole apple cart of UK politics and bring some new realities into play. In Northern Ireland Sinn Fein traditionally top the poll with the DUP and Ulster Unionist Party sharing the final two seats. I don't see that changing, but It will be interesting to see how the DUP do and whether the SDLP can launch a serious challenge for the final seat.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 7th, 2019 at 08:22:46 PM EST
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One of the expat Brits I know is very big on the idea of the EP election as a proxy for a second referendum. I can't really follow the logic. EP elections usually have relatively low participation and if there is a depressed turnout from people who think that, or want that Brexit happens I can readily see very middling results.

As to the results: I wouldn't expect anything drastic. I assume the Tories will lose some support since their whole strategy of absorbing UKIP is on fire. How much the TIGllers will cut into Labour's support I couldn't guess. From where I'm sitting they are too blatantly an anti-Corbyn outfit to run as a single issue anti-Brexit party.

by generic on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 12:45:27 PM EST
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See Off the reservation for a different take...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 02:08:09 PM EST
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