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The LibDems won't replace the Tories. They're too closely associated with the coalition.

Reality is the Tories still have a lot of support in the UK. Enough voters are some combination of misinformed, stupid, tribal, or just plain nasty to keep the Tories within five percent of Labour.

Anyway - latest news is the EU is going to say "Non" to May's request for more time without an explicit plan. Which presumably means either a GE or a People's Vote.

And the negotiations with Corbyn more or less amounted to "I want you to support my Withdrawal Agreement, and beyond that I have no interest in anything you say here."

So currently, unless Parliament gets its act together next week and forces a GE or a PV - or the EU relents at the last minute - it's going to be No Deal on the 12th.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 05:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll see. Political memories are short and the Brits are masters of re-inventing themselves. Brexit is becoming such a huge political, social, and emotional embarrassment, many conservative Brits may find it hard to forgive the party that caused it, for the next election at least, and possibly for a generation.. (Quite apart from the business community told to FO by Boris). The single seat FPTP system is so unfair on the party which comes third...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 05:20:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most conservative Brits want No Deal.

I believe you're underestimating how insanely far the far-right has moved. Something like 70% of Tory supporters and a solid core of Tory MPs are gung-ho for body bags, food shortages, rioting, and death.

This is why we have a problem. If a tiny lunatic fringe wanted No Deal, it would be off the table.

But it's not a tiny lunatic fringe. It's quite a large lunatic fringe - around 30% of all voters, and by far the most active element in the Tory grass roots.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 06:08:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why I expect UKIP and Farage's new Brexit party to do well, but they will mainly be taking votes from May's Conservative party chained to her hugely unpopular deal. Perhaps it is UKIP or Farage's party who will take over from the Conservatives in the duopoly but my own guess is they are too weak and divided. It's all very well to vote for such parties as a protest vote in an EP election, but many of those votes would either not materialise or be wasted in a single-seat FPTP general election. Either way, I think there is huge instability in the UK political system at the moment, and quite a few previously unthinkable outcomes may become possible.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Apr 5th, 2019 at 06:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
TBG:"But it's not a tiny lunatic fringe. It's quite a large lunatic fringe - around 30% of all voters, and by far the most active element in the Tory grass roots."

Interestingly, that is about the size of Trump's base in the USA. Anglo-Saxon Disease. Same root, toxic ethnic nostalgia. The only sane way forward is to marginalize these folks. But can we do it?

The most dangerous time for the adherents to such madness is when their representatives gain power. In both countries the adherents see glorious victory. Fortunately, most of the rest see disaster.

May those who orchestrate and support such madness go down with their puppets.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 01:14:51 AM EST
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This is the size of the Altemeyer "Authoritarians" more or less.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 12:29:55 PM EST
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