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Except that recession is part of the business cycle, and affects the economy as a whole, more or less in sync, and hopefully is recovered from within a reasonable time.

A no-deal Brexit would be a more fundamental change to the economy than a recession. Banks and manufacturing moving out of a country are not easily reversible, temporary actions. The Irish backstop will still be in play, which will either be permanent or will be replaced by unification--also permanent. Major and permanent political realignment could happen when you have two parties that are both divided on the EU issue; maybe there won't be either a Conservative OR a Labour party. Trading relationships are not permanent, but they have a really long lifetime because they are so hard to negotiate. Getting back into the EU will be tough, and will be under different terms.

Seems to me that expecting the Brexit fallout to be of the scale and permanence of a recession might be misleading.

by asdf on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 07:24:09 PM EST
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