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the problem right now is, like global climate change, any butterfly in the amazon will either cause London to freeze or bake. And there is a storm of butterflies right now.

Predictions have become futile because we make the mistake on basing them on rational analysis. That's why I'm trying so hard not to pay attention; because watching madness descend gives me a headache.

Right now, the main thing is that the Tories will continue their drift rightward into White Nationalism with a side order of Bankster Capitalism. Their membership is already being refreshed with ex-ukip operatives who will cement this tendency into place.

This will alienate a lot of middle class Conservatives who are small business owners who really don't like the oiky, yobby nouves polluting their poltics with their bad-for-business bigotry.

So, I think TInGe (or whatever they end up calling themselves) will probably see a few tories peeling away (their elevation of Heidi Allen as leader rather than Chuka Umunna was a smart move anticipating this). As John Major said at the weekend, "there will always be a need for a political home for modern conservative thinking, but there's no inevitability for that to be the conservative party".

The Tories will become the new ukip, a solid Leave party, but TInGe will replace them. Blairite without the blair, a return to One Nation Conservatism after the Thatcherite excesses.

But that will take time. Between then and now, all is darkness, we're just flies trapped in a bottle of shadows



keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 03:18:31 PM EST
Agreed on all points except I think Change UK will have to cooperate with the Lib Dems in order to have any chance of surviving the brutal FPTP single seat electoral system and, indeed, combine with them to have any chance of replacing the Tories in the Westminster duopoly.

BTW I also agree with you on the futility of trying to make accurate predictions, but sometimes it's fun anyway!

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 03:38:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think any cooperation between the LibDems and another party would be less than the sum of its parts. They might have some infrastructure that a new party lacks, but they will bring a lot of baggage.
It sort of reminds me of the German Left party, though on reflection the similarities are fleeting.
They were a fusion between a Social Democratic splinter formation from the West and the successor to the Eastern Socialist party. Though the problem here really wasn't the Iron Curtain and the Stasi (as soon as you want to raise taxes on the wealthy all those things become your fault. Remember that Angela Merkel was already politically active in the GDR, which is no blemish on her character, yet the SPD, the only party that didn't absorb part of the old East German apparatus, is always too close to the Reds). Here the problem was that the Eastern party was a mass party that wasn't particularly willing to run radical policies in states they controlled. And that cost them a lot of momentum.

Shrinking in fusions is also something that has happened to most leftwing parties that tried it in recent years. And why not? If you can't make a plausible claim to power, than you can only be hurt by compromising on positions.
But to get back to the point: A party that runs on remaining in the EU, very popular with young people, but also carries responsibility for tuition fees, as popular as cancer among young people, might very well fail to lift off.

by generic on Tue Apr 9th, 2019 at 09:50:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think any cooperation between the LibDems and another party would be less than the sum of its parts. They might have some infrastructure that a new party lacks, but they will bring a lot of baggage.

Good points. The Lib Dems also have form in this regard, with the Liberals merger with the Social Democrats providing a temporary boost followed by long term decline (again).

But the FPTP single seat constituency system really only permits a power duopoly with some regional variants in semi-autonomous polities. Sinn Fein and the DUP have also all but destroyed the SDLP and UUP, and it takes a very severe upheaval to bring either into play again.

My argument in the diary is that Brexit could represent one such upheaval, and that if it does change the constituents of that duopoly, the new duopoly could be just as difficult to overthrow.

Proponents of the system argue it is required to produce stable governments - yea right - and that the continental system of almost inevitable coalitions would never work for the UK.

The downside is that there is almost no history of major parties working together and societal polarisation can reach extreme levels, as in the US and UK right now.

So the bottom line is that neither the Lib Dems nor ChangeUK have much of a future in UK politics unless they can displace either the Tories or Labour in the duopoly and to do that they need a crisis and unity of purpose - however temporary - to give themselves a fighting chance in most English constituencies.

This doesn't have to be a full blown merger or policy alignment on all issues, but could be simply an agreement not to compete against each other in winnable constituencies. Quite who gets to lead in what constituencies could be difficult to agree - particularly before a snap election - but a simple system of improvised primaries where the public are invited to select the joint nominee could add novelty, interest, and public participation and legitimation to the process.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 10th, 2019 at 09:38:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would have expected Chuka to be the new leader if only because the group has 8 Labour exiles to 3 from the Tories, and failing that, Anna Soubry as the most prominent of the Tories. So what do you make of Heidi's elevation and will that facilitate greater cooperation with the Lib Dems - who have yet to elect a new leader and may not have any good candidates?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 03:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the LibDems are dying on their feet, they're down to 8 MPs and have no leader. And probably no purpose. Their behaviour during the ConDem pact where they enabled to entire Tory austerity campaign has revealed them as merely moderate conservatives willing to trample over every last stated principle for the illusion of power.

There was once a time when they split the anti-tory vote, providing a bolthole for Labour supporters upset over perceived slights. But no more, they're seen as tories, they governed as tories and nobody to the left of them will ever trust them again.

As I say, with the Tory split more likely, the schism being pro business pro-customs union versus anti europe swash-bucking free trade brexiteers, I'd say that Heidi allen's role was to be a more welcoming face for the fleeing Tories than the ex-Labour Umunna.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 04:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to Wiki the Lib Dems have 11 MPs and their Membership numbers are near an all-time high. Obviously Vince Cable is past his sell by date and I'm not sure they have any good alternatives to replace him with - hence my wondering whether Heidi Allen is a potential "unification candidate" especially if more Tories come across.  In polls including the Independent Group they are polling roughly level with the Independent group (6-10%) and slightly ahead of UKIP.

All of this tells us nothing about likely turnout in an EP election which will highlight the Tory's failure to "deliver Brexit" or negotiate a "good deal". However they seem to be similar pro-business, pro-EU, Tory lite parties with not a lot of potential policy rifts to separate them.  Personality differences are another matter, of course... and they do need a good media performer as a leader.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 05:07:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The LibDems had Clegg, a crypto-Tory, at the wheel at the crucial moment.  I figured at the time that, when they sealed the ConDem deal, they had signed their own death warrant.
by rifek on Tue Apr 9th, 2019 at 02:50:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is "Change UK" - CHUK - not a clue about who's really in charge?

Heidi's elevation is just window dressing.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Apr 9th, 2019 at 04:05:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the final analysis, human decisions are informed by the Cognitive Systems but made by the Emotive Systems.  Why?  Because Emotive, also called Affective, Processing Systems are where the 'Should-Do' is finalized.  

See "Descartes Error" and other works by Hanna and Antonio Damasio.

To expect MPs to make only rational decisions is to expect the impossible, things have gone beyond that.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 04:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So that's how their teaching Freudian psychoanslysis these days, eh? "Cognitive systems" (ego), "Affective systems" (id), and "Should-do" WHERE? (super-ego).

There's a diagram in The Ego and The Id in case you're wondering. Like a ven diagram, except for the blob bit for super-ego.

I know, I know. Needs moar fMRI.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 06:00:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is nothing like psychoanalysis


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 08:38:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet there it is:
reference to experimental observations ("neuro science")
of peripheral, somatic, and autonomic expressions (a/k/a "behaviors"),
produced by physiologic interactions contained to
anatomical structures of the human nervous system (taxonomy),
whose theoretical purposes are communicated by categorical analogies (semantic distinction)--
not one but three domains of conscious and unconscious significance only to other human beings.

Freud-Complete Works, "The Ego and The Id". pp 3967-4011

Coincidence? Non! Neologism.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Apr 8th, 2019 at 11:01:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Freud was a charlatan and psychoanalysis is pseudo-scientific poppycock.

Freud: The Making of an Illusion

Actual science:

Emotion and decision making

Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain

Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Apr 9th, 2019 at 08:12:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
m'k.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Apr 9th, 2019 at 08:36:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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