the problem right now is, like global climate change, any butterfly in the amazon will either cause London to freeze or bake. And there is a storm of butterflies right now.

Predictions have become futile because we make the mistake on basing them on rational analysis. That's why I'm trying so hard not to pay attention; because watching madness descend gives me a headache.

Right now, the main thing is that the Tories will continue their drift rightward into White Nationalism with a side order of Bankster Capitalism. Their membership is already being refreshed with ex-ukip operatives who will cement this tendency into place.

This will alienate a lot of middle class Conservatives who are small business owners who really don't like the oiky, yobby nouves polluting their poltics with their bad-for-business bigotry.

So, I think TInGe (or whatever they end up calling themselves) will probably see a few tories peeling away (their elevation of Heidi Allen as leader rather than Chuka Umunna was a smart move anticipating this). As John Major said at the weekend, "there will always be a need for a political home for modern conservative thinking, but there's no inevitability for that to be the conservative party".

The Tories will become the new ukip, a solid Leave party, but TInGe will replace them. Blairite without the blair, a return to One Nation Conservatism after the Thatcherite excesses.

But that will take time. Between then and now, all is darkness, we're just flies trapped in a bottle of shadows

keep to the Fen Causeway