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So paragraphs 1 and 2 of my predictions above look like they have come to pass. The May Corbyn talks look like they are going nowhere and the EU has agreed an A.50 extension until October 31st. That means the UK has to take part in the EP elections and it creates enough time for a change of Tory leader, a general election, and even, at a pinch, a second referendum.

My suspicion is that not a whole lot will happen - despite much Sturm und Drang - until after the EP elections which I expect to be a disaster for the Tories.

In the absence of other major developments, the EP elections will also become a proxy for a second referendum and the outcome, depending on the turn-out, could determine whether Brexit will ever happen.

The Tories will go absolutely mad, desperate to get rid of Theresa May by any means available, and yet I expect May to hang in there until after the EP elections at least unless her deal is passed by the House of Commons beforehand.

More hard Brexiteers will probably be prepared to support her deal now, worried that otherwise Brexit will never happen at all. But she could also lose votes from Tory Moderates and Remainers who favour a second public vote. So, again, I doubt her deal will pass, and the EP elections could change the whole ball game.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 10th, 2019 at 11:53:57 PM EST
I can't really find that May accepted the offer, but it seems to be treated as a given. Taking back control indeed.
by fjallstrom on Thu Apr 11th, 2019 at 10:38:02 AM EST
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High representative has accepted it in a letter sent last night.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Apr 11th, 2019 at 11:02:01 AM EST
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"Acceptance means acceptance."
by rifek on Sat Apr 13th, 2019 at 11:52:19 PM EST
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If Labour have two brain cells to rub together, they will use any means available to avoid a general, steering all desires to vote on something toward a second referendum.  With the local races coming up, Labour are likely to have a lot of new faces coming up, but they aren't anywhere near being ready for prime time national government now or in the near future.  Even if they were, Brexit is going to be a wreck, and the Tories will sit back and say, "See, we provided Brexit, but Labour just couldn't handle it."  And the average voter, lacking those two brain cells to rub together, will actually buy that Barn Stuff.  Then the Tories will be back in business, worse than ever.  The Tories whipped up this dog's breakfast; Labour should make them eat it with a big spoon.
by rifek on Sun Apr 14th, 2019 at 12:02:35 AM EST
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I'm past caring what conservatives will say. They don't need facts to back up what they are saying anyway, and other conservatives will lap up what they are saying because it is conservatives who are saying it.

There never will be an ideal time for Labour to take power. They are only likely to be voted in after conservatives have made a complete mess of things anyway.

At the moment the priority is to stop Brexit happening. It's best to have the conservatives doing the stopping as then they are hoist on their own petard. But the consequences now are already bad, after years of awful conservative government.

A strong performance by Remain and second referendum parties in the EP elections will throw the cat among the pigeons and sow even more angst, doubt and confusion in conservative ranks.

Can a general election be far behind?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 14th, 2019 at 10:12:48 AM EST
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