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So paragraphs 1 and 2 of my predictions above look like they have come to pass. The May Corbyn talks look like they are going nowhere and the EU has agreed an A.50 extension until October 31st. That means the UK has to take part in the EP elections and it creates enough time for a change of Tory leader, a general election, and even, at a pinch, a second referendum.

My suspicion is that not a whole lot will happen - despite much Sturm und Drang - until after the EP elections which I expect to be a disaster for the Tories.

In the absence of other major developments, the EP elections will also become a proxy for a second referendum and the outcome, depending on the turn-out, could determine whether Brexit will ever happen.

The Tories will go absolutely mad, desperate to get rid of Theresa May by any means available, and yet I expect May to hang in there until after the EP elections at least unless her deal is passed by the House of Commons beforehand.

More hard Brexiteers will probably be prepared to support her deal now, worried that otherwise Brexit will never happen at all. But she could also lose votes from Tory Moderates and Remainers who favour a second public vote. So, again, I doubt her deal will pass, and the EP elections could change the whole ball game.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Apr 10th, 2019 at 11:53:57 PM EST

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