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The dynamics of Finnish politics has changed with the rise of the far right True Finn party (PS), but old structures usually persist, so my guess would be that the rural Centre (Kesk) prefers to go into opposition. That leaves the conservative Kok and social democratic SDP as the possible coalition, and then would need to add at least the Greens, Vihre. That still leaves them short of a majority, but since PS is out, they can invite back in the Swedish minority party SFP.

The only other combination I see is Kesk+Kok+PS. That would be the same coalition as after last election, so it would seem reasonable. But the PS that entered the coalition after last election can now be found as Blue Reform (Sin), after a change in leadership and a party split in PS. After the split Blue Reform was formed from the parliamentarians loyal to the old leadership, and they continued in government. Given that, and the losses for Kesk and that SDP is the largest party, I think this coalition is less likely.

To me, the biggest surprise is how lousy Blue Reform performed. I thought the old leadership of PS would retain some support, but apparently brand name trumps everything.

by fjallstrom on Sun Apr 14th, 2019 at 11:30:54 PM EST
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