Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

    The first issue is that the US would need to destroy Iran's air defenses, including fighters and surface-to-air missiles, in order to ensure the bombs hit their targets and to prevent Iran from doing serious damage in response. According to Robert Farley, a professor at the University of Kentucky and an expert on air power, this "would involve long-range bombers, drones, electronic warfare, land-based fighter-bombers, carrier aircraft, and submarine-launched cruise missiles."

Trump tweet: 'If Iran wants to fight, that will be the end of Iran' | The Guardian |
Gulf states approve redeployment of US forces | Gulf News |

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sun May 19th, 2019 at 09:58:15 PM EST
The first issue  ...
is guaranteed oil supply before, during, and after hostilities. Geography does not favor US homicidal maniacs and Mossad.

Sorry. It's annoying to read, but "Mr Market" is betting against Trump actually puncturing this hornets' nest or presumably bring VZ heavy crude on line to supplement KSA losses.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 08:33:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump Says the Military Industrial Complex is Pressuring him Into a War With Iran, A/V, transcript
Larry Wilkerson's 2 centimes

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 03:59:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent stuff ... searched archive here @EuroTrib for Col. Larry Wilkerson:

Brent Scowcroft turns on the Bush Administration by Alexander G Rubio on Oct. 21, 2005
The Quiet Coup geezer in Paris on May 16, 2006

Related reading ...

Prophet singer: the voice and vision of Woody Guthrie

Wilkerson Criticizes Bush on Iraq War ¶ "Cheney May Be A War Criminal" by Oui @BooMan on Nov. 29,  2005

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 07:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've been meaning to draw attention to two articles.

Carter Worried Bilateral Israel-Egypt Deal Would Undermine Regional Peace, a book review and critique by As'ad Abu Khalil of US collaboration with the Sadat regime as told by Carter-fan Stuart Eizenstat. Might buy this one, but still searching for a companion volume.

And Pepe Escobar's SWOT assessments for US and Iran commitments to hostilities War on Iran & Calling America's Bluff. (Escobar doesn't use the term SWOT, and yella sheet press tenders lofty principles of national security, but the scheme usually ends with profit (loss) calculation.)

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed May 22nd, 2019 at 01:47:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's forty years ago, although I lived through those years, it is is just historical content with little relevance today.

The boldness of Sadat to travel to Jerusalem and speak to the Knesset was quite amazing. This book illustrates the weakness of Carter as leader and the political goal for reelaction in 1980 played  key role. The Islamic Revolt of Iran led by Khomeini was the nail in Carter's coffin as U.S. president. Brzezinski was the hard-nosed anti-communist who made the deal with Saudi Arabia to send fighters  - jihadists - into the AfPak reguon to fight Soviet occupation af Afghanistan. It delivered the world Osama bin Laden and decades of global terror that is spreading today. Sadat failed to play a role similar to Nasser and was assassinated by the Muslim Brotherhood in October 1981. This brought Hosni Mubarak as leader to Egypt and Ayman al-Zawahiri as the co-plotter of 9/11 and leader of Al Qaeda. The Muslim states of North Africa have been targeted by the Islamic Jihad for many decades and will not be solved by U.S., French or NATO special forces to protect western interests.  

Carter Camp Divisions

The book explains clearly that the administration was divided between two camps: National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus Vance. Vance was motivated more by human rights while Brzezinski spoke for a less pro-Israeli foreign policy, largely from the standpoint of securing Arab support against the USSR.

Domestic policy advisors were solidly in support of the traditional pro-Israel line because they feared the impact on Carter's prospects for re-election. Carter wavered between the two groups, Eisenstat writes. But he eventually surrendered to Israeli dictates in the negotiations. Even that wasn't sufficient politically: Carter was perceived as hostile to Israeli interests and his support among Jewish voters, according to the author, plummeted to 40 percent in 1980.

Israel and the U.S think the Islamic Revolution can be turned back similar to Communism and the Soviet Union ...

U.S. Anti-Iran Lobby Group Accused of Mossad Ties by Oui @BooMan on Aug. 1, 2014
Israel Prepares the Ground Work for Iran War by Oui @BooMan on Feb. 11, 2018
#HimToo - Iran Deal Scrapped

For many years I have stated best to make Israel a state of the union to give peace a chance in the area of Palestine.

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed May 22nd, 2019 at 09:33:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, Sadat's peace treaty was very similar to the offer he made earlier, with a deadline of September 1973. Israel didn't respond - Golda Meir discussed it with Dayan and Galili, but didn't even think of informing the Chief of Staff, or the head of Intelligence. Sadat's boldness was in starting a war that everybody knew Egypt would lose, but would shock the Israelis so that they would take his offer more seriously next time (in other words, it was a military defeat but a strategic victory). You can read about it in Kipnis' book, which I see has been translated.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed May 22nd, 2019 at 09:53:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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