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I suspect you are right and that Corbyn has dismissed the EP elections as a matter of no importance right now, but that is to ignore the momentum they could give to Farage and BoJo. If Farage "wins" the EP elections with 30% the media will studiously ignore the fact that Remainer parties got more than that and will focus on Labour being humiliated despite the fact that the Tories polled far worse.

Momentum for a second referendum could stall, and disgruntled Tory MPs could fall in behind a BoJo premiership where he can simply run the clock down to a no deal Brexit. Perhaps that is what Corbyn wants, but I doubt that is what a growing majority of Britons want.

But hey, they don't matter much anyway do they? Despite the pretence at "populism".

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 12:39:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm more and more convinced that the primary aim of the LDs has always been to keep Labour out of power. They'll use any pretext to help that, and Brexit is an exceedingly effective one.

Remain on FB is currently being carpet-bombed by "Labour is a Brexit Party" posts, which suggests a handy false equivalence between Labour's nuanced - and probably unachievable, certainly without a PV - Brexit goals, and Tory/TBP Fuck You No Deal.

And it's working. Farage is set to walk it, and of course that puts No Deal back on the table.

It's hard to work out which LDs are paid trolls and which are just a bit stupid and gullible, but fanatically zealous in their self-harming pursuit of a Remain result that will make No Deal more likely.

Of course I could be wrong about all of this, but I'm really not seeing how "The Remain Party" coming a distant second to "The Brexit Party" helps Remain in any way.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 10:59:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Criticising Lib Dems for being Lib Dems and trying to maximise their vote by hoovering up disgruntled Remainers is hardly a valid criticism. If Corbyn wanted to go after Remainer votes, he knows what he has to do - unequivocally support a second referendum.

The Lib Dems are essentially a status quo party but Labour's change agenda - such as it is - is being drowned out by the Brexit issue which currently Trumps all else. With the Tories also likely to go radical no deal Brexit under a new leader, there may actually be a huge opportunity for a status quo centre ground party to replace either Labour or the Tories in the Westminster duopoly, just as the Brexit Party threatens to do to the Tories.

Corbyn has been absolutely consistent - he wants a general election and may very well get one if Boris fails to muster a Commons majority. If the Brexit party is more successful at splitting the right wing vote than the Lib Dems are at pealing off Labour supporters, then Corbyn will win that one if he promises a second referendum on any new BREXIT deal which Labour manages to negotiate. The SNP could help him make up the numbers...

He can then claim a democratic mandate for whatever the electorate decides and get on with implementing the rest of Labours anti-austerity programme.  In this scenario, the EP elections are little more than a glorified  opinion poll with the potential to almost destroy the Tories. Farage will crow that he is the next prime Minister in waiting and hard Brexiteers could desert the Tories in a general election as well.

Lots of ifs and buts, and very risky. I think he should have taken the EP elections much more seriously and offered a second referendum now. But its probably too late to make that offer now and he will just have to take a Brexit party win on the chin. The latest opinion polls put him way out in front of the Lib Dems and within striking distance of the Brexit party in any case...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 12:29:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Conservatives take power at Bolton Council as agreement reached | The Bolton News
THE Conservatives will lead Bolton Council as smaller parties make a deal to appoint David Greenhalgh as council leader.

But for the whole country. Again.

by generic on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 01:30:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And also for the fact that according to Cable, the current LibDem Remain Masterplan seems to be to support May's Deal and hope a PV amendment attached to it will pass.

It's absolutely fair to criticise them for all of this. Of course they're playing party politics, but that's hardly an excuse when there's so much at stake.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 01:50:35 PM EST
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There may be local factors at play, but the Lib Dems supporting the Conservatives to keep Labour out is not a good look when translated to the national level. It reminds voters of the Lib Dem Conservative coalition many Lib Dems would rather the voters forgot.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 02:09:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see a slightly different scenario playing out over the summer; to whit-

May will be destroyed at the next vote for her idiot deal. Although there will be an attempt at making a decent fight of it, BoJo will be crowned king of the shit-heap within weeks.

At which point, the Tory party will suffer a major split. The membership are fairly solid brexit and I imagine you could look to 200 solid hard right no-deal leavers within the Parliamentary party with around 50-100 fsm knows) committed leavers who will follow the pack.

Which leaves 20 odd (Amber Rudd, Rory Stewart and a few others) looking at each other and wondering where they go from there. Especially when (not if) Boris decides he's gonna tack harder to the popullist right to attempt to hoover up the Farage-ist voters.

I suspect they're gonna abandon ship and join the LibDems. Strong rumours that Heidi Allen, who left the Tories to join TInGe/ChangeUK/CUcK  will be soon leaving to join the LibDems as well. I suspect Tinge may soon disappear with almost all of them, realising their bid to change the dynamic has failed, will decide they stand far more chance of retaining their seat in parliament if they are LibDems.

The LibDems may need to recognise that their main usp will become "Business First" where business is actually manufacturing and SMEs. So they'll need to abandon their Danny alexander-led push into the City and start talking to people outside of london.

So, as we roll towards October we'll have a nationalist Tory party no longer able to get a majoirty in the Commons (expecially as the DUP know a no deal stance is gonna hurt their own base hardest), a business LibDem and Labour. I reckon Boris will face a no-confidence motion and will lose it. Election in november with the EU more or less saying that if a brexit party wins, it's no deal the next day. That's gonna concentrate minds somewhat.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 02:16:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Election in november with the EU more or less saying that if a brexit party wins, it's no deal the next day.

That's not how it works. I don't think there is any mechanism to shorten an A50 period except a withdrawal agreement going into force.

Still think it's 50-50 that Boris issues an A50 revocation immediately on taking power, blaming May and Corbyn for fucking it up.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 02:41:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well,you've surprised me there. Let just say you could be a rich man if you put a euro on that bet in a bookies and it happened.

I think if he did that he'd be lynched, by his own party.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 02:47:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would put nothing past Boris. He could claim to be revoking A.50 to give himself two years to negotiate a better deal. Then when the EU even refuses to meet him to discuss renegotiating the deal he would claim that he will disrupt EU business until such time as they beg to reopen negotiations. When the EU still studiously ignores him - and sends middle ranking civil servants to discuss "technical details" or "clarifications", Boris will claim a great victory.

Still don't think it will happen. But as I said "Boris is Boris".

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 03:35:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm assuming Boris is Bannon's man, so this is not going to happen.

Brexit is an oligarch project, and while Boris is shameless to his public, behind the scenes he knows who his bosses are. (In fact he considers himself one of them, although of course he isn't.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 05:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh come on, he'll cast it as not letting those bloody Europeans throw us out, we'll show them who's boss and shake his tousled hair and all the blue rinses will go weak at the knees.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 07:21:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
re- the A50 thing.

The extension runs out at the end of October. I can see the EU allowing a time out for the election, which would probably happen in early Nov by my reckoning. But they would only countenance a further extension if a remain party won.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 02:50:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Tories are going to jump ship in October, I don't see why they wouldn't do it in July when Boris is looking to be elected PM. Some may be bought off with promises of Cabinet positions and vague promises to renegotiate the deal but most, I suspect, will know they won't last after Brexit day.

So we could have a weird situation where Boris is elected Tory leader but cannot win election as PM, which means May is still "caretaker" PM when the election is being held - a sort of Zombie undead overseeing the whole process...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 03:45:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris is elected Tory leader but cannot win election as PM, .....

I may have misunderstood the point you have made a couple of times about Boris being elected by "The Commons" but, as I understand it, if Boris is selected as one of two by the Tory MPs (from a field currently of about 16) and then chosen as leader from those two by the 120,000 or so ageing party members, he is the PM; there is no separate election of PM. The procedure is described here.

Unless the field is whittled down, this procedure could take several weeks - more wasting time that we don't have.

Boris does then have to select a cabinet and maintain the confidence of the cabinet and his fellow MPs!.

by oldremainmer48 on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 04:08:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No. As I understand it the election of a new Tory leader and of a new PM are entirely separate and distinct events with different electorates for each.

Under current rules Tory MP's whittle down the list of contenders to two, and these last two are then voted on by the party membership to determine the new Tory leader.

That leader then seeks to win election as PM where the electorate is the whole house of Commons. The new Tory leader doesn't simply inherit the office of Prime Minister from his predecessor as Tory leader. Theresa May remains acting PM until a successor IS elected.

If no one can win a majority of the House of Commons, a general election is probably the only way to resolve the impasse, although it is possible for the Tory leadership to nominate someone else for the office of PM and that person can become PM if they can persuade the Queen asks him/her to form a government and they win a vote in the House of Commons.

Given the egos involved, that is most unlikely to happen.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 09:06:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As far as I know, there is no formal Parliamentary election of the PM. The party leader who appears most likely to be able to command a majority in support of her government is invited by the monarch to form that government. If the majority is in fact tenuous, the Opposition will quickly exploit that fact and bring the government down.

Example:

(Wikipedia): On 13 July 2016, two days after becoming Leader of the Conservative Party, May was appointed Prime Minister by Queen Elizabeth II, becoming only the second female British Prime Minister after Margaret Thatcher.

After all, this is a monarchy.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 07:38:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
AFAIK The Queen may ask Boris to form a government, but that government must then win a vote of confidence in the House of Commons for it to actually take office/remain in office - the difference may be a matter of days. I am not clear whether a person who has been asked to form a government but fails to achieve a Commons majority for his government remains as PM in a caretaker capacity - as it would be open to the Queen to ask someone else to form a government in that circumstance. As no one else is likely to be able to form a government with a majority, a general election seems the almost inevitable outcome.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 05:33:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't believe there is any obligation to table a confidence motion. The Government has to show it can get its legislation through Parliament and can deal with necessary business. If it has difficulty doing this, the Opposition will table a no-confidence motion. If this is carried, the Government has 14 days in which to win a vote "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government".

Other votes which may demonstrate confidence / no confidence are the Queen's Speech and the Budget.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 07:14:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why wouldn't the opposition table vote of no confidence straight away, in order to test whether BoJo had a majority in the House behind him? AFAIK there is no requirement for Labour to wait until BoJo can't pass a major piece of legislation like the Budget - which won't be until the Autumn anyway...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 10:17:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be a matter of judgement for the Opposition. If they think they're in with a chance of victory, if they want to clear up who really supports the government, then they could go with the no-confidence motion immediately. Logically, it's what would happen if the Gov majority was apparently flimsy.

For this reason, there are "consultations" before the monarch calls a person to the Palace to ask them to form a government. It has to be shown that the proposed PM can really command a majority, even as slim as May's. In other words, if May hadn't negotiated with the DUP (even for just "confidence and supply"), she wouldn't have been appointed.

If Parliament is well and truly hung, there will have to be another election.

That's the best of my understanding, taking into account that the UK constitution is largely a matter of convention, not of written rules.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Wed May 22nd, 2019 at 06:29:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yea - convention is a great guide, until it isn't...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 22nd, 2019 at 10:35:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps the Speaker will come up with a coherent process? That would be fun. And give him a bit of a legacy. The Bercow process.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed May 22nd, 2019 at 01:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian: Labour will try to force a vote of no confidence in the next prime minister as soon as they take office, John McDonnell said, as Conservative candidates throw their hats into the ring to succeed Theresa May.


I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sat May 25th, 2019 at 11:35:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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