Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I see a slightly different scenario playing out over the summer; to whit-

May will be destroyed at the next vote for her idiot deal. Although there will be an attempt at making a decent fight of it, BoJo will be crowned king of the shit-heap within weeks.

At which point, the Tory party will suffer a major split. The membership are fairly solid brexit and I imagine you could look to 200 solid hard right no-deal leavers within the Parliamentary party with around 50-100 fsm knows) committed leavers who will follow the pack.

Which leaves 20 odd (Amber Rudd, Rory Stewart and a few others) looking at each other and wondering where they go from there. Especially when (not if) Boris decides he's gonna tack harder to the popullist right to attempt to hoover up the Farage-ist voters.

I suspect they're gonna abandon ship and join the LibDems. Strong rumours that Heidi Allen, who left the Tories to join TInGe/ChangeUK/CUcK  will be soon leaving to join the LibDems as well. I suspect Tinge may soon disappear with almost all of them, realising their bid to change the dynamic has failed, will decide they stand far more chance of retaining their seat in parliament if they are LibDems.

The LibDems may need to recognise that their main usp will become "Business First" where business is actually manufacturing and SMEs. So they'll need to abandon their Danny alexander-led push into the City and start talking to people outside of london.

So, as we roll towards October we'll have a nationalist Tory party no longer able to get a majoirty in the Commons (expecially as the DUP know a no deal stance is gonna hurt their own base hardest), a business LibDem and Labour. I reckon Boris will face a no-confidence motion and will lose it. Election in november with the EU more or less saying that if a brexit party wins, it's no deal the next day. That's gonna concentrate minds somewhat.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 02:16:56 PM EST
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