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UK (GB), ComRes poll:European ElectionBREX-EFDD: 32% (+5)LAB-S&D: 22% (-3)LDEM-ALDE: 14% (+1)CON-ECR: 12% (-3)GREEN-G/EFA: 7%ChUK-EPP/ALDE: 5% (-1)SNP-G/EFA: 3%UKIP-ENF: 3%PC-G/EFA: 1% (+1)+/- vs 10-12 MayFieldwork: 13-17 May ' 19Samplesize: 4,161#EP2019 #Brexit pic.twitter.com/21v0q4uLtp— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 21, 2019
UK (GB), ComRes poll:European ElectionBREX-EFDD: 32% (+5)LAB-S&D: 22% (-3)LDEM-ALDE: 14% (+1)CON-ECR: 12% (-3)GREEN-G/EFA: 7%ChUK-EPP/ALDE: 5% (-1)SNP-G/EFA: 3%UKIP-ENF: 3%PC-G/EFA: 1% (+1)+/- vs 10-12 MayFieldwork: 13-17 May ' 19Samplesize: 4,161#EP2019 #Brexit pic.twitter.com/21v0q4uLtp
I still fail to see how a vote at the European election influences anything with the possible exception of a BREXIT blowout. Will Theresa May feel morally obliged to run a second referendum? Boris Johnson? Nearly all of Labour already voted for a second referendum. There were something like 40 defections? How many of those would switch the vote even if Corbyn whipped until his hands fell off?
Personally I think the outcome is very hard to predict because turnout is hard to predict. Will Remainers treat it as a proxy referendum on membership and so turn out in force? Are hard core Brexiteers the most angry and motivated to turn out? We know many Tories won't bother to vote, but what about most Labour supporters?
As for impact/influence, a runaway victory for the Brexit party would provide BoJo with the mandate he needs for a no deal Brexit. Conversely, if the combined Remainer parties out poll the combined Leaver parties, that would increase pressure for a formal second referendum.
The final result is no more binding on the political parties than the Brexit referendum was, but we saw how much political influence that has had. Either way, I think May's deal is dead, especially if the Brexit party out polls the Tories and Labour combined - a distinct possibility.
It will be no deal or no Brexit, and that could be determined by how well the Remainer parties do.
Index of Frank's Diaries
The British media certainly aren't go to read it like that.
It is absolutely guaranteed that if - when? - Farage wins by a big majority over the runner-up party, he will claim a mandate for No Deal.
And the Tory media and some of the supposedly not-so-Tory media will echo that.
The only way to prevent that would have been to allow Labour to beat TBR. But the LDs have run a very effective spoiler campaign, so that's not going to happen now.
They're clearly happy with second place, and second place is the best they'll get - which may appear to be good news for them, but it's going to be an utter PR disaster for Remain.
Voters literally do not understand PR in the UK. There is no public concept of power-sharing or consensus negotiation.
It's all about winners and losers - which is why we have the (now majority) Remain voters being ignored, while Leavers bang on about how they won a referendum and Westminster has to do everything they want.
This has been amazingly effective in demobilizing left-wing voters (or at least, those who had any motivation left after Hollande's abysmal presidency)
It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II
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