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That is why I focus on the trend of all polls, although even that didn't help me much with the last US Presidential election.

Personally I think the outcome is very hard to predict because turnout is hard to predict. Will Remainers treat it as a proxy referendum on membership and so turn out in force? Are hard core Brexiteers the most angry and motivated to turn out? We know many Tories won't bother to vote, but what about most Labour supporters?

As for impact/influence, a runaway victory for the Brexit party would provide BoJo with the mandate he needs for a no deal Brexit. Conversely, if the combined Remainer parties out poll the combined Leaver parties, that would increase pressure for a formal second referendum.

The final result is no more binding on the political parties than the Brexit referendum was, but we saw how much political influence that has had. Either way, I think May's deal is dead, especially if the Brexit party out polls the Tories and Labour combined - a distinct possibility.

It will be no deal or no Brexit, and that could be determined by how well the Remainer parties do.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 22nd, 2019 at 10:33:03 AM EST
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