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Still, all of what I said above is by the by. May will step down in June and there will be a new Prime Minister. Frankly, and disastrously, it is looking certain that the new one will be an arch-Brexiteer, probably Boris. Yes, there will be defection from the Tories, but personally I doubt it will reach double figures.

Given the rhetoric currently flying around, it's seemingly likely that they will then simply run the clock down to the end of October and leave with no deal. Simply because the only deal available requires an Irish backstop which a majority of leavers have persuaded themselves in unacceptable.

In this scenario, Corbyn's view is irrelevant, for reasons I've detailed before. Which is fortunate because it means that the Tories will own this idiocy in its entirety.

And maybe we need to leave. There is a real crisis of political legitimacy in the country. Westminster has, for years, decades, debated and discussed thingswithout any seeming input from the majority of the country. After the crash of 2008, the tax evading/avoiding City 1% were bailed out, but the bills for that were passed on to the taxpayers. SMEs were driven out of business, mortages became unaffordable, wages stagnated but the unregulated rental sector operated by and for the 1% pushed rents through the roof. For which the government punished the poor by capping the amount of benefit available for rents.

Yes, we can say that the Leave vote was about all of the above and so much more, but these people will feel betrayed if their views are ignored. And there is only one place they will run if that happens, and that's into the welcoming arms of Nigel Farage. No deal will be bad, but a country run by a coalition of Farage and Boris will be even more of a dystopian nightmare. and then we will definitely leave.

So, maybe we need to leave now. Not because it's a good thing, it's not, but because it will quickly be seen to have been a mistake and we can begin to repar the damage more quickly. But if we fudge it and stay in, I doublt we'll be able to return for a generation.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat May 18th, 2019 at 05:42:16 PM EST
I understand the logic and feelings behind your comments above, but there are two sides to the Brexit equation and I doubt the EU would ever consider letting the UK back in after all that has happened. If you leave, it will be for good, come what may, and post Brexit relations may not even be very close or friendly if it ends up being a no deal Brexit. The UK may not become the North Korea of Europe (Gordon Brown), but it will come to be seen as a Trojan horse for a hostile USA in Europe.

So yes, there may be a crisis of political legitimacy if the UK stays in, but that problem may be more fixable than trying to reverse Brexit once Britain has left...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat May 18th, 2019 at 08:59:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK has  always been America's trojan horse, at least since thatcher.

We are the ones who spread the neoliberal poison. We are the ones who always put little blocks and impediments in every useful regulatory initiative. We were the ones preaching the US prosperity gospel in Brussels.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 19th, 2019 at 07:13:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK may not become the North Korea of Europe (Gordon Brown), but it will come to be seen as a Trojan horse for a hostile USA in Europe.
It may well become like Belarus, an authoritarian satellite of Russia outside the Council of Europe's Convention on Human Rights.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 02:34:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen: And maybe we need to leave. There is a real crisis of political legitimacy in the country.

I don't quite see the connection there. Leaving isn't going to fix the problem of political legitimacy, unless you buy the raucous propaganda that says less than 52% is "the will of the people", and that the other half are not the people. You're not going to get any political legitimacy out of that deal.

There's a crisis of political legitimacy in France too, see gilets jaunes. Americans who support Trump reckon there's one in the US, too. We could list other "Western liberal democracies", Italy, for instance. But fixing the problem calls for changes in the system of political representation that would clear out the lobbies of the corporate rich and bring in the voices of the mass of people that are left out. In no way an entirely fabricated issue like "Leave" is going to do that. The unemployed of Merthyr or the Potteries will just get one more well-heeled kick in the teeth out of it.

Agreed, "Remain" isn't any more legitimate than "Leave" (fabricated issue etc...). But fixing the problem of political legitimacy in our worn-out democracies would mean a lot of hard, honest work, and no one in politics has been up for that for decades. (Minister, just go on mouthing the hollow words and making the customary gestures, and forget about the monster growing under your desk, OK?).

Add that neoliberalism has given us endless austerity, and you have the ideal conditions for the growth of fascism. "Leave" won't fix that.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Sun May 19th, 2019 at 09:07:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Leave will fix the problem of political legitimacy in the same way that Weimar fixed its self-esteem issues by electing Hitler and destroying itself.

There will be no UK and probably no England by the time this is over. There may not even be much of an inhabitable area.

Assuming things don't get that bad, we'll have the traditional post-colonial fascist dictatorship, and it will be overthrown by the traditional popular uprising in x decades - x most likely being some random number between 1 and 5.

I have no idea what state the EU will be in then. If it's still functioning along more or less the same lines the Republic of Greater Britain will doubtless be keen to rejoin, and the EU is unlikely to have any serious objections.

Meanwhile this problem is caused by both personal and political senility. Batty old pensioners are the primary drivers, both in parliament and out of it. Poverty is certainly a contributor, but only to the extent that it gives working class xenophobes an easy - wrong - solution to their problems.

The bulk of Leavers are the over-55s - bitter, angry about their own personal decline, and apparently masochistic. Their numbers are thinning daily.

The question now is whether Boris plans to respect Parliament - in which case we're staying in, because No Deal isn't going to pass - or whether he's simply going to declare himself Dung Hill Emperor and get on with that fascism thing.

Given Bannon's influence, my guess is we'll see a Farage/Boris coalition. Hurrah.

(I'm glad I got out when I could.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun May 19th, 2019 at 11:31:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You got out? I must have missed that.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 02:35:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep - now on the mainland. Sometimes it's even sunny.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 21st, 2019 at 09:18:37 PM EST
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Bwahahaha you've fallen for May's Cunning Plan haven't you?

This Is What She Intended All Along...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon May 20th, 2019 at 03:18:33 PM EST
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