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A friend uses slightly different, but more justifiable imo, arithmetic and comes up with something more ambiguous

For Brexit - Brexit Party, UKIP, 50% of Change UK, 50% of Conservatives and 50% of Labour = 48.10% of the vote

Against Brexit - Liberal Democrats, Green Party, SNP, Plaid Cymru, 50% of Change UK, 50 % of Labour and 50% of Conservatives = 50.38%

the problem we have is there really should be a halfway position that could be negotiated. Sadly that might have been achieved if Theresa May had had a different mindset and was willing to reach, but both sides are dug in and demand the abolutism of winner takes all.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 05:05:54 PM EST
The Remain fraction was almost certainly much larger for Labour and much smaller for the Tories.

Disaffected Lexiters very likely voted TBP, and so did most pro-Brexit Tories.

I'd guess at least 60% of Labour voters were pro-Remain, but less than 20% of Tories.

Also, I'd be very surprised if CHUK had significant Brexiter support.

Which would put the numbers closer to those that are being seen in polls, with 55-60% for Remain.

And I don't think anyone wants a compromise. A compromise was never in May's gift, because the ERG and the other headbangers were never going to accept one, and Remainers were only ever going to accept one very reluctantly.

By pushing hard for No Deal, the ERG are going to be left with Remain.

IMO, given party splits and biases, the opposite is far less likely to happen now.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 05:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is the side issue that there is no compromise position. You're in, or you're out, and the dynamics mean that out is going to be a pretty hard out within a few years, probably followed by an accession process. Brexit is now the defining issue of British politics for at least the next generation.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 28th, 2019 at 12:34:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I base my additions on the declared policy positions of the parties concerned. ChangeUK is 100% Remain, Labour policy is to support a soft Brexit, the Tories campaigned (insofar as they did) on May's deal. We can all make assumptions about what party supporters want, but objectively they voted for parties espousing particular policies.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:37:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering that voting is subjective and sometimes strategic - never mind local - I don't think it's possible to claim that votes are objective at all.

In my proxy constituency one of the sitting MEPs is a staunch pro-EU Labour remainer. He was re-elected by a comfortable margin - which wouldn't have happened if his supporters had decided they were voting for a pro-Brexit party.

The only true single-issue voters were TBP supporters, Greens, and many LibDems. The main parties, especially Labour, had a much more complex profile of support.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon May 27th, 2019 at 07:47:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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