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One of the curious features of polling for the next UK general elections is YouGov's performance in always calling the result a tie between the Conservatives and Labour.

Their poll for 29/30th. of April had them tied on 29% apiece.
On 8/9th,. May it was 24% apiece
On 13/14th. May it was 25% apiece
On 28/29th. May it was 19% apiece with the added stinger that the Lib Dems on 24% and Brexit Party on 22% were actually ahead of both.

What are the chances of this happening by random chance?

Meanwhile all other polling firms had Labour up to 10% ahead. It is almost as if YouGov are contractually obliged never to show Labour ahead, no matter how badly the Conservatives are doing in all other polling.

In polling for the European Parliament elections, on the other hand, YouGov consistently has the Brexit party doing significantly better than other pollsters and the actual election results.

In Remain/Leave polling, it generally has the Remain lead at 4/5% - less than most other pollsters.

What gives? Methinks they need to re-check their sampling methodology or the filters they apply to thir raw data results...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 1st, 2019 at 11:20:23 AM EST

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