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It now becomes a question of whether Angela Merkel and other key leaders are prepared to throw Ireland under a bus and agree to drop the "Irish Backstop" from the Withdrawal agreement in order to facilitate "an orderly Brexit", or will they maintain solidarity with the member state most effected by Brexit?
There's nothing much the EU can do to protect Ireland from  Brexiteers who is willing to go for no deal if the alternative is the backstop.

So the question is whether the EU decides to let no deal happen in solidarity with Ireland or it negotiates a deal with a British PM whose red lines include breaking the single market on the island of Ireland.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 13th, 2019 at 03:51:09 PM EST
Given that the UK negotiating position will be considerably weakened after Brexit, it will be possible both to allow a no deal Brexit happen AND subsequently negotiate a deal preventing a hard border in Ireland. There is also a non trivial political difference between a hard border in Ireland being forced on Ireland by a No deal UK Brexit, and one imposed by a dirty deal between the UK and the Commission. Ireland would simply refuse to implement the latter. Is the EU prepared to go to war with Ireland?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 13th, 2019 at 04:00:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK seems prepared to go to war with itself. Ireland will be a footnote. (As it usually is, from the UK POV.)

In fact Trump will probably declare war with Iran before any of this happens, making Brexit itself a forgotten footnote in the global war that follows.

(No, I'm not in a positive mood today. Thanks for asking.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jun 13th, 2019 at 05:38:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We all knew End-Game Middle East War was back in the scenario mix when Der Drumpfenfuehrer brought John Boltbrain back.
by rifek on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 04:25:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because previous military interventions in the middle east have worked so well...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 10:28:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the old saw about one definition of insanity being repeating the same behavior and expecting different results?  Neocons are straight-jacket/rubber-room/chain-them-to-the-wall-level criminally insane.
by rifek on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 12:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hint: Election Year
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jun 20th, 2019 at 01:15:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
THE BACKSTOP DOESN'T MATTER. IT'S THEIR EXCUSE FOR A DESIRED NO-DEAL BREXIT.

Stop pretending there are concessions that can be made to those mendacious idiots. Stop pretending they're acting in good faith.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 13th, 2019 at 05:42:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. There is no majority for any particular Brexit in the parliament (which any competent negotiator would have checked before triggering Article 50) and the backstop is used as the symbolic issue for the group that prefers a no deal Brexit.
by fjallstrom on Fri Jun 14th, 2019 at 05:24:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Its more than that. The backstop has become a handy shorthand and lightning rod for a 700 page agreement they haven't understood and probably haven't even read. While lots of different Brexiteers have lots of different problems with different parts of the agreement, they have decided to coalesce around this one issue. This has the benefit of making a deal easier to come by IF the timing is right (last minute) and Brexiteers don't have time to then move on to other gripes as it reduces all opposition to one core fault.

So if, for example, Johnson decides to ditch the DUP and make the backstop Northern Ireland only, everyone bar the DUP and a v. few hard core British unionists are happy - and the deal is even better from an Irish/EU perspective as they were never happy to guarantee the UK cost free access to the Single Market and Customs Union in the first place.

If the DUP do decide to press the nuclear button (at the risk of putting Corbyn in power) Johnson can campaign on the basis of a new improved deal which no longer keeps GB tied to the EU indefinitely.  Everybody suddenly thinks the other 699 pages of the agreement are great, breaths a sigh of relief that no deal has been averted, and gives Johnson an electoral endorsement if the Telegraph's opinion poll is to be believed.

Obviously the Brexit party will campaign on the basis that the other 699 pages aren't great either and so it will become a no deal versus Johnson's deal debate with Labour and Remainers sidelined. Johnson will seek to capture the "reasonable" centre ground and campaign on the basis that his deal will allow the UK negotiate its own trade deals and control immigration.

Corbyn will find it hard to differentiate himself from that position because in practice Labour differences with that are small and relate to the yet to be negotiated future relationship part of the deal. Johnson can fob off those concerns by promising to negotiate a pony for everyone in the next phase. And many will believe him...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 14th, 2019 at 09:24:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure it's a lightning rod now. But will they stay united if they get a change there? So far every concession the UK has received has been followed by new demands, sometimes directly contrary to what they have just received. Sure, at some point tiredness sets in and everyone wants to move on, but I don't think the Tories are quite there yet.
by fjallstrom on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 09:07:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two key words there: competent and negotiator.  There is no competence, and negotiating has never been on the table.  Why bother when it's always been "obvious" the EU would just cave?
by rifek on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 04:31:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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