Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Let us assumes that existing controls will continue to apply to all non EU27 and non UK imports/exports, until and unless Fox negotiates his magnificent trade deals with Madagascar etc.

I don't know why any country would want to limit its exports, as that helps its own industry. So the problems relate to import controls and concerns about quality controls or tariff evasion.

The Brits keep saying they will keep their borders open, and expect the EU to reciprocate. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

So the problem for the UK will not be shortages of medicines etc., but shortages of cash to pay for them as UK exports experience increasing difficulty accessing the Single Market.

Ireland will be expected to act as a gatekeeper for any UK goods trying to enter the EU26 via Ireland, and that it will do via controls at all Irish air/sea ports.

There remains the problem of UK goods accessing the Irish Market. The UK had its only significant trading surplus with Ireland, so restrictions there could be very damaging for both. Both are also promising to keep the border open, so the only alternative is controls at the Irish sea and/or trusted trader schemes within Ireland.

The administrative burdens (and or tariffs) involved could see Irish businesses seek alternate EU26 sources of supply. Equally Irish exporters to the UK (chiefly pharma and agri-food) will seek alternate markets in EU 26. Think Irish Cheddar replacing UK Cheddar on EU supermarket shelves.

Overall Ireland/UK trade has declined from 70% of total Irish Trade at EU accession in 1973 to 14% now. That trend will continue, probably sharply accelerated by Brexit and Sterling devaluation.

The problems for the Irish economy will be largely internal, with already booming Dublin's economy boosted by UK financial services companies relocation to Dublin, but already struggling rural areas suffering even more because of loss of food exports to the UK. Political dynamite for the government. Expect intra-EU talks to facilitate substitution of UK exports by Irish Exports.

I don't expect the DUP veto to survive for long in this scenario.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 1st, 2019 at 04:02:48 PM EST
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