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...for a no-deal Brexit.

Boris Johnson to EU: I won't pay unless deal improved

Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is stepping up his campaign to be Britain's next prime minister by challenging the European Union over Brexit terms.

Johnson told the Sunday Times he would refuse to pay the agreed-upon 39 billion-pound ($50 billion) divorce settlement unless the EU offers Britain a better withdrawal agreement than the one currently on the table.

Johnson is a hard-line Brexit advocate who vows to take Britain out of the EU on the Oct. 31 deadline even if there is no deal in place.

If a future PM Johnson is determined to leave the EU without a deal come Halloween, there is bugger all the Parliament can do to stop him.
by Bernard on Sun Jun 9th, 2019 at 03:01:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It can vote no confidence in his government, which could force a general election. But not if parliament is prorogued before that can happen...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 9th, 2019 at 04:10:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am probably confused, but isn't Brexit a two-step project: first, the divorce, and second, any subsequent trade or other treaties?

If so, BoJo can argue, perhaps, that the UK won't pay the 39B divorce settlement, and will leave without a deal. That covers the first part.

But then what? Would the EU begin to negotiate the treaties before the 39B is delivered? I would think not, but that doesn't affect his current promise. Seems like he is making a supportable claim, but just shading it to avoid mention of what happens after leaving.

by asdf on Sun Jun 9th, 2019 at 06:34:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the UK reneges on the deal freely negotiated with the May government the EU will probably refuse to negotiate on stage 2 - a FTA or whatever future trading relationship the UK wants.  What is the point of negotiating further with a country that doesn't honour previous agreements?

No deal means NO DEAL, so the EU may even refuse to negotiate landing rights for UK carriers to destinations in the EU = no flights, although some "sectoral arrangements" formal or informal, might persist - e.g. security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and NATO related matters.

The EU might even impose tariffs on UK goods to recover the "lost" 39m Billion, reduce congestion at borders by reducing trading volumes, and compensate for increased administrative costs and the loss of competitiveness created by a radical devaluation of Sterling...

You will note that all the talk of trading on WTO rules is coming from the UK hard Brexiteer side. The EU has given no guarantees that this will be the case. Trump has driven a coach and four through WTO rules in any case. If the UK takes Trumps side in any US/EU trade disputes, it can expect to be in the front line.

My problem is not that this is all project fear stuff. My problem is project fear doesn't come close to describing what a rapid deterioration of relations post Brexit could lead to. No one wins trade wars, but the weaker side can lose pretty badly. CF The Anglo-irish Trade war 1932-38.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 9th, 2019 at 08:10:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The other candidates for Tory leadership are saying the same. (Raab, McVey, Hunt...).

Gesticulation aimed at the Tory membership "base".

Proroguing Parliament to impose a policy Parliament has several times voted against would be an outright putsch by the executive. Aggravated by the fact that opinion polls show pretty solid opposition to that policy on the part of a majority of the electorate. That way lies constitutional mayhem and a country paralysed by conflict for years to come.

To that add what Frank says above about EU reactions.

The only route for a PM who wants to pull out with no deal is to win a general election fought on the question. The Leave vote would be split between Farage and the Tories, and Labour would stand an excellent chance of making it on an anti-no-deal platform, in spite of Remainer defections to the Lib Dems.

To the objection that BoJo et al have fat-cat backers who are licking their chops at the prospect of UK roadkill, I'd suggest they wouldn't be tipping their cards so blatantly at this stage. These declarations of wicked intent from the candidates are aimed at the comparatively small number of aged swivel-eyes who are to elect the Tory party leader.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Jun 10th, 2019 at 08:02:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The irony being that having just voted for unelected EU bureaucrats the British public or their elected representatives won't get to vote on who should be their "democratically elected" PM.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 10th, 2019 at 09:05:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's called "taking back control" of something you've never had control of.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Jun 10th, 2019 at 09:15:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or 100,000 self entitled, ageing, Tory snobs deciding they don't want to share power with anyone...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 10th, 2019 at 11:11:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I were European Commission president, the moment Boor-Ass became PM, I would use that statement as a basis for freezing all UK assets in the EU.
by rifek on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 02:15:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No need for anything illegal. Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 09:34:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't illegal, it's just always been reserved for little people like Iceland and Venezuela.  But now that the UK has decided to relegate itself to vassal-state status....
by rifek on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 12:22:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the EU decides to get tough with the UK, and recover the costs of commitments (incl. pensions) it has incurred on behalf of the UK, all it has to do is slap a global 10% "surcharge" on imports from the UK, thereby reducing the impact of a radical Sterling devaluation and any competitive advantage the UK seeks to gain through that. No doubt Brexiteers will complain that it is in breech of WTO rules on "most favoured nation status". Perhaps they will seek to enlist Trump's support for a "rules based international order". Good luck with that...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 03:38:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK gets about 6% (??) of its annual electricity from continental interconnectors - 2GW to France, 1GW to Netherlands, 1GW to Belgium 0.5GW to Ireland (which can be export from UK rather than importing Irish surplus).

Other interconnectors are planned to export / import surplus wind power.

Peak demand is 16:00 to 18:30 in mid January, when, if a high pressure system covers EU/UK, it is cold, there is no wind power and no solar power.

If UK leaves in acrimony, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to our "membership" of the single EU Electricity / Energy markets in mid January 2020 and whether there is still surplus to keep UK lights on.

But such a move would create problems for the single energy market in Ireland.

by oldremainmer48 on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 05:57:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IE is getting/has a direct French interconnection.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 06:42:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Learned about it while reading @BorderIrish:

by Bernard on Sun Jun 16th, 2019 at 08:14:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, "Will be getting".

From Wikipedia -

The cable is expected to be operational by 2025
by oldremainmer48 on Mon Jun 17th, 2019 at 08:13:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My mistake / bad memory. 1GW to/from France.
by oldremainmer48 on Mon Jun 17th, 2019 at 01:31:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have learned from this error. That is a good thing.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Jun 17th, 2019 at 01:54:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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