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I am probably confused, but isn't Brexit a two-step project: first, the divorce, and second, any subsequent trade or other treaties?

If so, BoJo can argue, perhaps, that the UK won't pay the 39B divorce settlement, and will leave without a deal. That covers the first part.

But then what? Would the EU begin to negotiate the treaties before the 39B is delivered? I would think not, but that doesn't affect his current promise. Seems like he is making a supportable claim, but just shading it to avoid mention of what happens after leaving.

by asdf on Sun Jun 9th, 2019 at 06:34:18 PM EST
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If the UK reneges on the deal freely negotiated with the May government the EU will probably refuse to negotiate on stage 2 - a FTA or whatever future trading relationship the UK wants.  What is the point of negotiating further with a country that doesn't honour previous agreements?

No deal means NO DEAL, so the EU may even refuse to negotiate landing rights for UK carriers to destinations in the EU = no flights, although some "sectoral arrangements" formal or informal, might persist - e.g. security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and NATO related matters.

The EU might even impose tariffs on UK goods to recover the "lost" 39m Billion, reduce congestion at borders by reducing trading volumes, and compensate for increased administrative costs and the loss of competitiveness created by a radical devaluation of Sterling...

You will note that all the talk of trading on WTO rules is coming from the UK hard Brexiteer side. The EU has given no guarantees that this will be the case. Trump has driven a coach and four through WTO rules in any case. If the UK takes Trumps side in any US/EU trade disputes, it can expect to be in the front line.

My problem is not that this is all project fear stuff. My problem is project fear doesn't come close to describing what a rapid deterioration of relations post Brexit could lead to. No one wins trade wars, but the weaker side can lose pretty badly. CF The Anglo-irish Trade war 1932-38.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 9th, 2019 at 08:10:48 PM EST
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